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UConn
HuskiesRun-HeavyFBS Independents6-7#111 (-5.85)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
18· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
25· DPer play
32· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
55· CPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.102
Defensive EPA/play
-0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.58
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.71
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#127
model 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UConn ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense19th
Opp-adjusted defense25th
Offensive EPA/play25th
Defensive EPA/play56th
Offensive success rate29th
Explosiveness30th
Defensive havoc28th
Points per drive17th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Army2023OA -0.077 / +0.023similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3922UCF2025OA -0.110 / +0.038similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, run defense3703Coastal Carolina2025OA -0.058 / +0.011similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3664Tulsa2018OA -0.122 / -0.008similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3545East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA350
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Utah State | 20-31 | L | +26.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 1 | vs Central Connecticut State | 28-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Syracuse | 14-48 | L | +23.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Michigan | 0-59 | L | +47.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 4 | @ NC State | 10-41 | L | +38.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Fresno State | 19-14 | W | +24.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 6 | @ Florida International | 33-12 | W | -5.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 7 | @ Ball State | 21-25 | L | +9.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Boston College | 13-3 | W | -15.5 | W | 40 | U |
| 10 | vs Massachusetts | 27-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Liberty | 36-33 | W | +14.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Army | 17-34 | L | +10.0 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 16 | vs Marshall | 14-28 | L | +12.0 | L | 41 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.102 | 21th | -0.046 | 59th |
| Red Zone | +0.000 | 49th | +0.075 | 32th |
| Third Down | +0.002 | 35th | -0.003 | 64th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.096 | 26th | -0.045 | 58th |
| First Half | -0.123 | 21th | -0.044 | 58th |
| Second Half | -0.080 | 30th | -0.048 | 58th |
| Early Downs | -0.056 | 33th | -0.019 | 47th |
| Passing Downs | -0.113 | 24th | -0.067 | 71th |
| Standard Downs | -0.095 | 24th | -0.036 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.385 | 8th | -0.103 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.5%Rush 65.5%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
302.9
Pts/Drive
1.58
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — UConn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UConn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 252 | 341 |
| Points / Game | 19.4 | 26.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 210 | 281 |
| Rushing | 124 | 131 |
| Passing | 65 | 123 |
| Penalty | 21 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 525 | 502 |
| Yards | 2,483 | 2,206 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 191.0 | 169.7 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 276 | 396 |
| Completions | 157 | 248 |
| Completion % | 56.9% | 62.6% |
| Yards | 1,455 | 2,740 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 105.88 | 126.68 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 801 | 898 |
| Yards | 3,938 | 4,946 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 302.9 | 380.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 22 |
| Yards | 83 | 226 |
| Average | 5.2 | 10.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 33 |
| Yards | 583 | 672 |
| Average | 19.4 | 20.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 49 |
| Yards | 2,758 | 1,931 |
| Average | 38.8 | 39.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 10 |
| Yards | 165 | 91 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 20 |
| Lost | 11 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 67 |
| Yards | 780 | 607 |
| Yards / Game | 60.0 | 46.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:19 | 29:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 173 |
| Conversions | 66 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 36.9% | 42.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 24 |
| Conversions | 7 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 29.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 41 |
| Score % | 82.9% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 31 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 63.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 14 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 63.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 40 |
| Made | 28 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.