Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#109 (-10.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
26· DPer play
13· FConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
61· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.072
Defensive EPA/play
-0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.5%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.211
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.73

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#124
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
16th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2019OA -0.055 / +0.051similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3672UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3663Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3614Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3475Eastern Michigan2023OA -0.162 / -0.059similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense346

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Virginia7-48L+13.5L55P
2vs Charleston Southern13-0W-28.5L49.5U
3vs East Carolina0-38L+7.0L57.5U
4@ South Alabama38-20W+15.5W51.5O
6@ Old Dominion7-47L+18.5L54P
7vs UL Monroe23-8W+2.5W46.5U
8@ App State45-37W+10.0W71.5O
10vs Marshall44-27W----
11vs Georgia State40-27W-9.5W70.5U
12@ Georgia Southern40-45L+3.0L59.5O
13@ South Carolina7-51L+40.5L62.5U
14vs James Madison10-59L+29.5L57.5O
19@ Louisiana Tech14-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
5-6-2
45.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off21thRed Zone Off56th3rd Down Off11thPass Def76thRush Def40thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09916th-0.02253th
Red Zone+0.03056th-0.06263th
Third Down-0.19011th-0.06874th
No Garbage Time-0.07426th-0.05462th
First Half-0.12915th+0.03432th
Second Half-0.06926th-0.08073th
Early Downs-0.09912th+0.04221th
Passing Downs-0.15519th-0.10576th
Standard Downs-0.06321th+0.01940th
Goal to Go-0.14627th+0.08340th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.8%Rush 54.2%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
325.4
Pts/Drive
1.73
3rd Down%
33.0%
3&Out%
24.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points288430
Points / Game22.233.1
First Downs
Total225282
Rushing106136
Passing98127
Penalty2119
Rushing
Attempts473530
Yards2,0262,704
Yards / Carry4.35.1
Yards / Game155.8208.0
Touchdowns1523
Passing
Attempts399414
Completions218258
Completion %54.6%62.3%
Yards2,2043,066
Yards / Attempt5.57.4
Touchdowns1625
Interceptions1312
Passer Rating107.75138.66
Total Offense
Plays872944
Yards4,2305,770
Yards / Play4.96.1
Yards / Game325.4443.8
Punt Returns
Returns2128
Yards147372
Average7.013.3
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2320
Yards543471
Average23.623.6
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts7454
Yards3,1162,128
Average42.139.4
Interception Returns
Returns1213
Yards87189
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2827
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties9095
Yards749820
Yards / Game57.663.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0331:57
Third Downs
Attempts188183
Conversions6270
Conversion %33.0%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1930
Conversions1012
Conversion %52.6%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4058
Scores (TD + FG)3350
Score %82.5%86.2%
Touchdowns2235
TD %55.0%60.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2326
Made1722
Pct73.9%84.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3346
Made3346
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts16
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →