← All Teams
USF
South Florida
BullsBalancedAmerican Conference4-8#73 (-2.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
46· COverall
Offense
40· CRating
14· FPer play
13· FConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
72· BPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.055
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.118
Defensive EPA/play
-0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.7%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.058
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.72
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 9 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense72th
Offensive EPA/play14th
Defensive EPA/play72th
Offensive success rate10th
Explosiveness13th
Defensive havoc62th
Points per drive22th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Syracuse2023OA -0.019 / +0.045similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate4092Coastal Carolina2025OA -0.058 / +0.011similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3673UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive success rate3484Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate3455Louisiana Tech2025OA -0.114 / -0.009similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, passing offense342
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Wisconsin | 0-49 | L | +10.0 | L | 58 | U |
| 2 | @ Georgia Tech | 10-14 | L | +5.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 3 | vs South Carolina State | 55-16 | W | -25.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 5 | vs SMU | 21-48 | L | +7.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 6 | @ UConn | 48-22 | W | -10.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 7 | vs BYU | 27-23 | W | +4.5 | W | 50 | P |
| 8 | @ Navy | 3-35 | L | +15.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 9 | @ East Carolina | 45-20 | W | -1.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 11 | vs Temple | 7-17 | L | 0.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 12 | vs Cincinnati | 17-20 | L | +13.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 13 | vs Memphis | 10-49 | L | +15.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 14 | @ UCF | 7-34 | L | +24.0 | L | 62 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.119 | 11th | -0.057 | 72th |
| Red Zone | -0.095 | 34th | -0.331 | 94th |
| Third Down | +0.003 | 45th | +0.061 | 43th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.129 | 13th | -0.072 | 74th |
| First Half | -0.176 | 7th | -0.037 | 59th |
| Second Half | -0.059 | 28th | -0.081 | 80th |
| Early Downs | -0.164 | 7th | -0.045 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | -0.109 | 22th | -0.079 | 75th |
| Standard Downs | -0.125 | 13th | -0.047 | 72th |
| Goal to Go | -0.242 | 23th | -0.179 | 67th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
10.5
Yards/Game
330.8
Pts/Drive
1.72
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
29.3%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | South Florida | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 250 | 347 |
| Points / Game | 20.8 | 28.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 200 | 274 |
| Rushing | 104 | 154 |
| Passing | 80 | 93 |
| Penalty | 16 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 445 | 562 |
| Yards | 1,935 | 2,503 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 161.3 | 208.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 27 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 328 | 325 |
| Completions | 177 | 203 |
| Completion % | 54.0% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 2,035 | 2,274 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.2 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 118.09 | 129.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 773 | 887 |
| Yards | 3,970 | 4,777 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 330.8 | 398.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 39 |
| Yards | 125 | 362 |
| Average | 8.3 | 9.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 32 |
| Yards | 609 | 650 |
| Average | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 74 | 57 |
| Yards | 3,317 | 2,350 |
| Average | 44.8 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 279 | 116 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 20 |
| Lost | 9 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 73 |
| Yards | 854 | 655 |
| Yards / Game | 71.2 | 54.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:51 | 32:09 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 190 |
| Conversions | 69 | 88 |
| Conversion % | 39.0% | 46.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 18 |
| Conversions | 7 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 43.8% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 29 |
| Score % | 79.5% | 67.4% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 22 |
| TD % | 61.5% | 51.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 15 |
| Made | 7 | 11 |
| Pct | 50.0% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 44 |
| Made | 31 | 42 |
| Pct | 93.9% | 95.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.