Fourth Down Data
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ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference6-6#78 (-1.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
15· DRating
21· DPer play
41· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
68· CPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.075
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.63

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#67
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
21th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
16th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3922Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense3333Tulsa2018OA -0.122 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3284Kentucky2024OA -0.042 / +0.015similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, passing offense3275East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, turnover rate326

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UL Monroe13-17L-9.5L47U
2vs Delaware State57-0W-39.5W46.5O
3@ UTSA37-29W----
4@ Syracuse16-29L+13.0P49.5U
6vs Boston College24-27L-3.0L49.75O
7vs Troy0-19L+4.5L44.5U
8@ LSU0-62L+30.5L57.5O
9vs Massachusetts14-21L-10.0L48U
10@ Air Force23-3W+18.5W31.5U
11vs Holy Cross17-14W-17.5L40.5U
12vs Coastal Carolina28-21W+4.5W43.5O
15@ Navy17-11W-2.5W28P

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off54thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off45thPass Def54thRush Def59thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def76th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06821th-0.01860th
Red Zone-0.02046th-0.20889th
Third Down+0.17245th+0.07676th
No Garbage Time-0.07618th-0.04070th
First Half-0.01839th-0.06077th
Second Half-0.12210th+0.02044th
Early Downs-0.03448th-0.05758th
Passing Downs-0.2034th+0.02454th
Standard Downs-0.00554th-0.03859th
Goal to Go+0.09564th-0.76999th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 22.2%Rush 77.8%
Havoc/Game
9.5
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
310.8
Pts/Drive
1.63
3rd Down%
37.8%
3&Out%
21.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points246253
Points / Game20.521.1
First Downs
Total194221
Rushing138102
Passing45103
Penalty1116
Rushing
Attempts574433
Yards2,4962,115
Yards / Carry4.34.9
Yards / Game208.0176.3
Touchdowns1915
Passing
Attempts164310
Completions83190
Completion %50.6%61.3%
Yards1,2342,255
Yards / Attempt7.57.3
Touchdowns716
Interceptions119
Passer Rating114.49133.62
Total Offense
Plays738743
Yards3,7304,370
Yards / Play5.15.9
Yards / Game310.8364.2
Punt Returns
Returns711
Yards11368
Average16.16.2
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1210
Yards223176
Average18.617.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4440
Yards1,6171,510
Average36.837.8
Interception Returns
Returns911
Yards180170
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost1110
Penalties
Penalties4870
Yards440535
Yards / Game36.744.6
Time of Possession
Per Game32:2227:33
Third Downs
Attempts156157
Conversions5963
Conversion %37.8%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3425
Conversions2011
Conversion %58.8%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips3334
Scores (TD + FG)2626
Score %78.8%76.5%
Touchdowns1916
TD %57.6%47.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1519
Made1212
Pct80.0%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2828
Made2825
Pct100.0%89.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →