Fourth Down Data
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UCF

UCF

KnightsBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#86 (-4.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
15· DPer play
34· DConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
62· CPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.110
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.101
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.050
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#74
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 50 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, run defense3712Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3643Rice2024OA -0.063 / +0.016similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, rushing offense3624Washington2026OA -0.025 / +0.023similar: pass defense, run defense, defensive EPA3615Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, pass defense360

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Jacksonville State17-10W----
2vs North Carolina A&T68-7W-37.5W51.5O
4vs North Carolina34-9W-24.5W46.5U
5@ Kansas State20-34L+5.5L48.5O
6vs Kansas20-27L+4.0L53U
7@ Cincinnati11-20L+11.0W55U
8vs West Virginia45-13W-7.5W47O
10@ Baylor3-30L+3.5L59.5U
11vs Houston27-30L----
12@ Texas Tech9-48L+32.5L53.5O
13vs Oklahoma State17-14W-4.5L37.5U
14@ BYU21-41L+17.5L47.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off21thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off21thPass Def93thRush Def31thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07724th-0.05563th
Red Zone-0.11027th+0.2822th
Third Down-0.08021th-0.06875th
No Garbage Time-0.10117th-0.05061th
First Half-0.12516th-0.02753th
Second Half-0.03240th-0.08878th
Early Downs-0.08017th-0.00944th
Passing Downs-0.10126th-0.23293th
Standard Downs-0.06421th+0.04131th
Goal to Go+0.22379th+0.27413th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.9%Rush 49.1%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
378.8
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
34.1%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points292283
Points / Game24.323.6
First Downs
Total218223
Rushing96117
Passing10694
Penalty1612
Rushing
Attempts388460
Yards1,8961,808
Yards / Carry4.93.9
Yards / Game158.0150.7
Touchdowns1918
Passing
Attempts403335
Completions250212
Completion %62.0%63.3%
Yards2,6492,221
Yards / Attempt6.66.6
Touchdowns1213
Interceptions129
Passer Rating121.12126.41
Total Offense
Plays791795
Yards4,5454,029
Yards / Play5.75.1
Yards / Game378.8335.8
Punt Returns
Returns1715
Yards196145
Average11.59.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2514
Yards541303
Average21.621.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4852
Yards1,9522,301
Average40.744.3
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards122145
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2116
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties9165
Yards686586
Yards / Game57.248.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5430:06
Third Downs
Attempts167167
Conversions5762
Conversion %34.1%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3629
Conversions2017
Conversion %55.6%58.6%
Red Zone
Trips3340
Scores (TD + FG)2835
Score %84.8%87.5%
Touchdowns1826
TD %54.5%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1724
Made1518
Pct88.2%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3432
Made3331
Pct97.1%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →