Fourth Down Data
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RICE

Rice

OwlsPass-Heavy
American Conference4-8#98 (-3.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
8· FRating
7· FPer play
10· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
64· CPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.160
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.98
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#91
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
15th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon State2025OA -0.080 / -0.013similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense3632UCF2025OA -0.110 / +0.038similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA3603Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3594Northwestern2019OA -0.147 / +0.092similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate3445Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate343

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Sam Houston14-34L-10.0L49.5U
2vs Texas Southern69-7W-29.0W53O
3@ Houston7-33L+4.5L44.5U
4@ Army14-37L+6.5L43O
5vs Charlotte20-21L-6.5L47.5U
7vs UTSA29-27W+6.0W50.5O
8@ Tulane10-24L+22.5W53U
9@ UConn10-17L+6.5L46.5U
10vs Navy24-10W+9.5W52.5U
11@ Memphis20-27L----
13@ UAB14-40L-6.5L51O
14vs South Florida35-28W+5.0W53.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off15thRush Off17thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off22thPass Def86thRush Def43thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11112th-0.04572th
Red Zone-0.3294th+0.3482th
Third Down-0.02522th+0.01368th
No Garbage Time-0.1587th-0.05069th
First Half-0.1599th-0.15093th
Second Half-0.06122th+0.05628th
Early Downs-0.10111th-0.04959th
Passing Downs-0.16515th-0.14786th
Standard Downs-0.07417th+0.01643th
Goal to Go-0.5811th+0.10332th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.4%Rush 38.6%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
352.9
Pts/Drive
1.48
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
27.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points266305
Points / Game22.225.4
First Downs
Total220214
Rushing74109
Passing12586
Penalty2119
Rushing
Attempts301471
Yards1,3671,927
Yards / Carry4.54.1
Yards / Game113.9160.6
Touchdowns1417
Passing
Attempts478325
Completions293180
Completion %61.3%55.4%
Yards2,8682,086
Yards / Attempt6.06.4
Touchdowns1718
Interceptions138
Passer Rating117.99122.65
Total Offense
Plays779796
Yards4,2354,013
Yards / Play5.45.0
Yards / Game352.9334.4
Punt Returns
Returns2913
Yards223113
Average7.78.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2710
Yards708265
Average26.226.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6368
Yards2,5292,833
Average40.141.7
Interception Returns
Returns813
Yards72186
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1914
Lost94
Penalties
Penalties8574
Yards689708
Yards / Game57.459.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4231:18
Third Downs
Attempts165176
Conversions5867
Conversion %35.2%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions710
Conversion %35.0%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips4130
Scores (TD + FG)2726
Score %65.9%86.7%
Touchdowns1820
TD %43.9%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1915
Made1211
Pct63.2%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2937
Made2836
Pct96.6%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →