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ORST
Oregon State
BeaversBalancedPac-12 Conference2-10#130 (-18.13)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
5· FRating
7· FPer play
24· DConsistency
11· FBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
58· CPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
7· F3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.080
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.150
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.099
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.23
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-3.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
-2.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.36
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#116
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#65
recruiting 65 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense21th
Opp-adjusted defense44th
Offensive EPA/play7th
Defensive EPA/play59th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness11th
Defensive havoc45th
Points per drive4th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3982Northwestern2021OA -0.108 / +0.022similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive EPA3693Wyoming2025OA -0.170 / +0.043similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3694Rice2024OA -0.063 / +0.016similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense3635Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense357
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs California | 15-34 | L | +1.3 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Fresno State | 27-36 | L | +3.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 3 | @ Texas Tech | 14-45 | L | +23.5 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Oregon | 7-41 | L | +13.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Houston | 24-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ App State | 23-27 | L | +3.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Wake Forest | 14-39 | L | +24.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Lafayette | 45-13 | W | -21.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Washington State | 10-7 | W | +3.3 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Sam Houston | 17-21 | L | -20.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Tulsa | 14-31 | L | -2.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 14 | @ Washington State | 8-32 | L | +14.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS0-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.090 | 19th | -0.046 | 61th |
| Red Zone | -0.135 | 20th | -0.254 | 91th |
| Third Down | -0.218 | 7th | -0.111 | 82th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.150 | 7th | -0.038 | 58th |
| First Half | -0.156 | 10th | +0.048 | 27th |
| Second Half | -0.025 | 44th | -0.160 | 94th |
| Early Downs | -0.035 | 37th | -0.011 | 46th |
| Passing Downs | -0.217 | 10th | -0.059 | 61th |
| Standard Downs | -0.023 | 39th | -0.039 | 61th |
| Goal to Go | +0.226 | 81th | -0.132 | 67th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.4%Rush 48.6%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
349.8
Pts/Drive
1.23
3rd Down%
36.3%
3&Out%
28.9%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oregon State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 218 | 353 |
| Points / Game | 18.2 | 29.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 244 | 228 |
| Rushing | 95 | 95 |
| Passing | 123 | 111 |
| Penalty | 26 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 410 |
| Yards | 1,487 | 1,889 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 123.9 | 157.4 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 431 | 348 |
| Completions | 260 | 198 |
| Completion % | 60.3% | 56.9% |
| Yards | 2,710 | 2,669 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 117.83 | 137.59 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 839 | 758 |
| Yards | 4,197 | 4,558 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 349.8 | 379.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 36 |
| Yards | 80 | 579 |
| Average | 8.0 | 16.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 29 |
| Yards | 490 | 692 |
| Average | 17.5 | 23.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 69 | 56 |
| Yards | 2,916 | 2,253 |
| Average | 42.3 | 40.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 13 |
| Yards | 131 | 169 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 11 |
| Lost | 7 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 91 |
| Yards | 599 | 767 |
| Yards / Game | 49.9 | 63.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:29 | 28:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 168 | 152 |
| Conversions | 61 | 50 |
| Conversion % | 36.3% | 32.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 18 |
| Conversions | 8 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 33 |
| Score % | 71.8% | 84.6% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 21 |
| TD % | 61.5% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 22 |
| Made | 6 | 18 |
| Pct | 42.9% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 39 |
| Made | 20 | 39 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.