Fourth Down Data
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MD

Maryland

TerrapinsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference5-7#79 (-0.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
31· DRating
26· DPer play
24· DConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
45· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.011
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.086
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 53 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Maryland ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rutgers2023OA -0.027 / +0.050similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3522UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense3493UL Monroe2024OA -0.006 / -0.009similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA3414Kentucky2020OA -0.028 / +0.030similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3155Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA315

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas34-29W+12.5W54O
2@ Bowling Green45-14W-13.5W65.5U
3vs Temple14-35L-15.0L56.5U
4vs Minnesota42-13W-2.5W46.5O
6@ Michigan21-42L+17.5L44O
7vs Rutgers34-7W-23.5W51U
8@ Iowa0-23L+9.5L44.5U
9vs Illinois63-33W-16.5W56O
10vs Michigan State3-24L+3.0L43U
11@ Indiana32-34L+1.0L55O
12vs Ohio State51-52L+13.5W61.5O
13@ Penn State3-38L+12.0L51.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off28thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off80thPass Def77thRush Def20thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02136th+0.01545th
Red Zone+0.01449th+0.03644th
Third Down+0.21380th+0.02150th
No Garbage Time-0.03630th+0.00848th
First Half-0.05630th+0.03634th
Second Half+0.01452th-0.00752th
Early Downs-0.12710th+0.08316th
Passing Downs+0.01856th-0.11577th
Standard Downs-0.04428th+0.08420th
Goal to Go+0.16070th+0.10345th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.1%Rush 66.9%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
371.4
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
24.2%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Maryland vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarylandOpponents
Scoring
Points342344
Points / Game28.528.7
First Downs
Total202258
Rushing122123
Passing63102
Penalty1733
Rushing
Attempts487504
Yards2,7622,207
Yards / Carry5.74.4
Yards / Game230.2183.9
Touchdowns2620
Passing
Attempts241339
Completions125184
Completion %51.9%54.3%
Yards1,6952,478
Yards / Attempt7.07.3
Touchdowns1219
Interceptions518
Passer Rating123.23123.56
Total Offense
Plays728843
Yards4,4574,685
Yards / Play6.15.6
Yards / Game371.4390.4
Punt Returns
Returns1811
Yards78100
Average4.39.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4047
Yards959972
Average24.020.7
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6758
Yards2,7422,272
Average40.939.2
Interception Returns
Returns185
Yards171139
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles2414
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties10057
Yards956507
Yards / Game79.742.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0232:13
Third Downs
Attempts160169
Conversions6466
Conversion %40.0%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1020
Conversions713
Conversion %70.0%65.0%
Red Zone
Trips3143
Scores (TD + FG)2939
Score %93.5%90.7%
Touchdowns1925
TD %61.3%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1416
Made1216
Pct85.7%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4140
Made4040
Pct97.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →