Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference5-7#109 (-5.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
43· CPer play
13· FConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
39· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.003
Defensive EPA/play
+0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#124
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
21th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2022OA +0.023 / +0.072similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3892Louisiana2025OA -0.058 / -0.067similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3703Northern Illinois2025OA -0.147 / -0.067similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3454Maryland2018OA -0.028 / +0.015similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA3415UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, rushing offense339

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Jackson State30-14W----
2vs UAB32-6W+11.0W54.5U
4@ Texas3-51L+44.5L52.5O
5@ Troy13-9W+7.0W45.5U
6vs James Madison21-19W+16.0W48.5U
7vs Southern Miss38-21W-6.5W41.5O
9@ South Alabama17-46L+7.5L45.5O
10@ Marshall23-28L+10.5W47.5O
11vs Texas State17-38L+7.0L49O
12@ Auburn14-48L+24.0L46O
13@ Arkansas State21-28L+3.0L52.5U
14vs Louisiana23-37L+9.5L48.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off44thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off37thPass Def58thRush Def25thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01338th+0.02435th
Red Zone-0.13923th+0.15116th
Third Down+0.03237th+0.08549th
No Garbage Time-0.00643th+0.02140th
First Half-0.08225th-0.01148th
Second Half+0.06167th+0.06127th
Early Downs-0.10510th-0.00840th
Passing Downs-0.00839th-0.02758th
Standard Downs-0.01644th+0.04825th
Goal to Go-0.21519th+0.15319th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.0%Rush 65.0%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
304.4
Pts/Drive
1.81
3rd Down%
32.7%
3&Out%
24.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points252345
Points / Game21.028.8
First Downs
Total185256
Rushing99145
Passing6796
Penalty1915
Rushing
Attempts456494
Yards2,0362,401
Yards / Carry4.54.9
Yards / Game169.7200.1
Touchdowns1727
Passing
Attempts246327
Completions134192
Completion %54.5%58.7%
Yards1,6172,207
Yards / Attempt6.66.7
Touchdowns1115
Interceptions126
Passer Rating114.69126.88
Total Offense
Plays702821
Yards3,6534,608
Yards / Play5.25.6
Yards / Game304.4384.0
Punt Returns
Returns611
Yards6359
Average10.55.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns836
Yards121727
Average15.120.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5844
Yards2,2761,822
Average39.241.4
Interception Returns
Returns612
Yards56115
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1516
Lost38
Penalties
Penalties7179
Yards519637
Yards / Game43.353.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4729:13
Third Downs
Attempts153154
Conversions5067
Conversion %32.7%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2523
Conversions1611
Conversion %64.0%47.8%
Red Zone
Trips2845
Scores (TD + FG)2641
Score %92.9%91.1%
Touchdowns1431
TD %50.0%68.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1414
Pct82.4%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2941
Made2839
Pct96.6%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →