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AUB
Auburn
TigersRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference5-7#70 (-0.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
48· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
22· DPer play
23· DConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
49· CPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.110
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.79
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#89
model 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 56 spots higher
38 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense58th
Opp-adjusted defense79th
Offensive EPA/play22th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate21th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc30th
Points per drive33th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UL Monroe2024OA -0.006 / -0.009similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3892Charlotte2024OA -0.021 / -0.045similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3453Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3434Ball State2022OA -0.128 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3405Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense338
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Mercer | 42-16 | W | -33.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 2 | vs San José State | 24-16 | W | -24.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Penn State | 12-41 | L | +2.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 4 | vs Missouri | 17-14 | W | -7.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 5 | vs LSU | 17-21 | L | +8.0 | W | 46 | U |
| 6 | @ Georgia | 10-42 | L | +28.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Ole Miss | 34-48 | L | +14.5 | W | 55.25 | O |
| 9 | vs Arkansas | 27-41 | L | +3.5 | L | 62 | O |
| 10 | @ Mississippi State | 33-39 | L | +13.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 11 | vs Texas A&M | 13-10 | W | -2.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Western Kentucky | 41-17 | W | -5.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 13 | @ Alabama | 27-49 | L | +22.0 | P | 49 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.079 | 28th | -0.008 | 45th |
| Red Zone | -0.046 | 38th | +0.201 | 13th |
| Third Down | +0.090 | 53th | +0.184 | 24th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.115 | 21th | -0.022 | 49th |
| First Half | -0.119 | 21th | +0.043 | 26th |
| Second Half | -0.035 | 44th | -0.060 | 67th |
| Early Downs | -0.105 | 17th | -0.034 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | -0.132 | 18th | -0.038 | 59th |
| Standard Downs | -0.045 | 36th | +0.010 | 33th |
| Goal to Go | -0.250 | 20th | +0.077 | 32th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.5%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
378.4
Pts/Drive
1.88
3rd Down%
36.0%
3&Out%
23.4%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 297 | 354 |
| Points / Game | 24.8 | 29.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 217 | 244 |
| Rushing | 120 | 107 |
| Passing | 88 | 119 |
| Penalty | 9 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 488 | 447 |
| Yards | 2,469 | 2,072 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 205.8 | 172.7 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 28 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 308 | 412 |
| Completions | 159 | 238 |
| Completion % | 51.6% | 57.8% |
| Yards | 2,072 | 2,671 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 109.98 | 121.33 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 796 | 859 |
| Yards | 4,541 | 4,743 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 378.4 | 395.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 10 |
| Yards | 170 | 42 |
| Average | 8.1 | 4.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 32 |
| Yards | 380 | 692 |
| Average | 16.5 | 21.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,494 | 2,685 |
| Average | 43.8 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 12 |
| Yards | 33 | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 19 |
| Lost | 10 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 90 | 90 |
| Yards | 688 | 694 |
| Yards / Game | 57.3 | 57.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:14 | 29:46 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 179 |
| Conversions | 64 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 36.0% | 42.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 12 |
| Conversions | 13 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 59.1% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 41 |
| Score % | 88.1% | 89.1% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 31 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 67.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 19 |
| Made | 18 | 14 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 43 |
| Made | 31 | 42 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.