Fourth Down Data
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SDSU

San Diego State

AztecsRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference9-4#60 (+1.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
16· DRating
28· DPer play
45· CConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
95· APer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.118
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.062
Defensive EPA/play
-0.192
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
41.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.130
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.095
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#57
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 19 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
89th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: havoc rate, pass defense, rushing offense3842Texas A&M2021OA -0.092 / +0.152similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3793NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3624Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3605Rutgers2023OA -0.027 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate356

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Stony Brook42-0W----
2@ Washington State13-36L+1.5L47O
4vs California34-0W+14.0W47U
5@ Northern Illinois6-3W-5.0W40.5O
6vs Colorado State45-24W----
7@ Nevada44-10W-7.0W42.5O
9@ Fresno State23-0W-7.5W26.5U
10vs Wyoming24-7W-10.0W42U
11@ Hawai'i6-38L-6.5L48.5U
12vs Boise State17-7W-2.0W41.5U
13vs San José State25-3W-12.0W50.5U
14@ New Mexico17-23L----
18vs North Texas47-49L+7.3W54.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS7-0
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS8-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off6thRush Off50thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off2thPass Def100thRush Def84thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07627th-0.18297th
Red Zone-0.02046th-0.25390th
Third Down-0.2762th-0.28898th
No Garbage Time-0.08024th-0.19696th
First Half+0.03463th-0.09178th
Second Half-0.1842th-0.28699th
Early Downs-0.00350th-0.14893th
Passing Downs-0.2446th-0.312100th
Standard Downs+0.00550th-0.10484th
Goal to Go-0.05343th-0.16974th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.4%Rush 65.6%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
356.4
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
31.2%
3&Out%
23.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan Diego StateOpponents
Scoring
Points343200
Points / Game26.415.4
First Downs
Total234209
Rushing13488
Passing85101
Penalty1520
Rushing
Attempts551458
Yards2,5831,684
Yards / Carry4.73.7
Yards / Game198.7129.5
Touchdowns259
Passing
Attempts289417
Completions166223
Completion %57.4%53.5%
Yards2,0502,134
Yards / Attempt7.15.1
Touchdowns1014
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating121.52100.35
Total Offense
Plays840875
Yards4,6333,818
Yards / Play5.54.4
Yards / Game356.4293.7
Punt Returns
Returns3319
Yards309147
Average9.47.7
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2013
Yards451335
Average22.625.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6677
Yards3,1093,264
Average47.142.4
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards28898
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost53
Penalties
Penalties8072
Yards727577
Yards / Game55.944.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1729:33
Third Downs
Attempts170202
Conversions5365
Conversion %31.2%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2536
Conversions1419
Conversion %56.0%52.8%
Red Zone
Trips4129
Scores (TD + FG)3620
Score %87.8%69.0%
Touchdowns2714
TD %65.9%48.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2315
Made198
Pct82.6%53.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3622
Made3622
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →