Fourth Down Data
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IOWA

Iowa

HawkeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference6-2#10 (+8.97)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
60· CRating
36· DPer play
48· CConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
97· A+Per play
94· AConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.027
Defensive EPA/play
-0.184
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
42.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.157
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.031
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.93
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+1.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#34
model 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
42th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3942Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3863Louisville2025OA +0.020 / +0.123similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3774NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3525Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, run defense, TD drive rate343

2020 Schedule & Results

8 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Purdue20-24L-3.0L53U
9vs Northwestern20-21L-2.5L46.5U
10vs Michigan State49-7W-3.5W58U
11@ Minnesota35-7W----
12@ Penn State41-21W0.0W45O
13vs Nebraska26-20W----
14@ Illinois35-21W-13.5W51O
15vs Wisconsin28-7W+2.0W41.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-3
62.5%
O/U Record
3-5
37.5%
Straight Up
6-2
75.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off84thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off9thPass Def80thRush Def98thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02736th-0.15998th
Red Zone+0.19684th-0.13479th
Third Down-0.2379th-0.07779th
No Garbage Time-0.03134th-0.19899th
First Half-0.03732th-0.20897th
Second Half-0.01541th-0.11384th
Early Downs+0.06577th-0.19798th
Passing Downs-0.2715th-0.07680th
Standard Downs+0.09384th-0.20498th
Goal to Go+0.45094th+0.31114th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
368.6
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
33.6%
3&Out%
24.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 8 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowaOpponents
Scoring
Points254128
Points / Game31.816.0
First Downs
Total159141
Rushing6858
Passing8278
Penalty95
Rushing
Attempts296303
Yards1,368861
Yards / Carry4.62.8
Yards / Game171.0107.6
Touchdowns188
Passing
Attempts248275
Completions141159
Completion %56.9%57.8%
Yards1,5811,649
Yards / Attempt6.46.0
Touchdowns99
Interceptions511
Passer Rating118.35110.99
Total Offense
Plays544578
Yards2,9492,510
Yards / Play5.44.3
Yards / Game368.6313.8
Punt Returns
Returns236
Yards22331
Average9.75.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1215
Yards216236
Average18.015.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4053
Yards1,7652,186
Average44.141.2
Interception Returns
Returns115
Yards23327
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1113
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties3839
Yards317331
Yards / Game39.641.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2030:40
Third Downs
Attempts107134
Conversions3654
Conversion %33.6%40.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts916
Conversions68
Conversion %66.7%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3622
Scores (TD + FG)3316
Score %91.7%72.7%
Touchdowns2413
TD %66.7%59.1%
Field Goals
Attempts196
Made143
Pct73.7%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2716
Made2615
Pct96.3%93.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →