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UNLV
UNLV
RebelsRun-HeavyMountain West Conference4-8#110 (-6.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
17· DOverall
Offense
46· CRating
50· CPer play
49· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
23· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.111
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.006
Defensive EPA/play
+0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play51th
Defensive EPA/play24th
Offensive success rate44th
Explosiveness38th
Defensive havoc26th
Points per drive50th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Vanderbilt2022OA +0.014 / -0.067similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3712Navy2018OA -0.008 / -0.113similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3563Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3474Middle Tennessee2019OA -0.023 / -0.088similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3375Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA334
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ USC | 21-43 | L | +24.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UTEP | 52-24 | W | -22.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Prairie View A&M | 46-17 | W | -32.0 | L | 67 | U |
| 4 | @ Arkansas State | 20-27 | L | +8.0 | W | 66.5 | U |
| 6 | vs New Mexico | 14-50 | L | -8.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Utah State | 28-59 | L | +27.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 8 | vs Air Force | 35-41 | L | +9.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 9 | @ San José State | 37-50 | L | +2.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Fresno State | 3-48 | L | +27.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 11 | @ San Diego State | 27-24 | W | +24.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Hawai'i | 28-35 | L | +6.0 | L | 71 | U |
| 13 | vs Nevada | 34-29 | W | +14.0 | W | 60.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.005 | 46th | +0.088 | 17th |
| Red Zone | +0.290 | 95th | +0.044 | 40th |
| Third Down | +0.022 | 41th | +0.064 | 39th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.004 | 49th | +0.072 | 22th |
| First Half | +0.046 | 66th | +0.065 | 25th |
| Second Half | -0.052 | 27th | +0.116 | 15th |
| Early Downs | +0.011 | 61th | +0.057 | 23th |
| Passing Downs | -0.046 | 31th | +0.099 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | +0.018 | 58th | +0.082 | 20th |
| Goal to Go | +0.097 | 54th | +0.071 | 53th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.0%Rush 61.0%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
391.2
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
23.1%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UNLV | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 345 | 447 |
| Points / Game | 28.8 | 37.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 246 | 257 |
| Rushing | 135 | 114 |
| Passing | 89 | 133 |
| Penalty | 22 | 10 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 544 | 462 |
| Yards | 2,692 | 2,239 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 224.3 | 186.6 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 348 | 381 |
| Completions | 178 | 225 |
| Completion % | 51.1% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 2,002 | 3,211 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.8 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 29 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 115.34 | 149.72 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 892 | 843 |
| Yards | 4,694 | 5,450 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 6.5 |
| Yards / Game | 391.2 | 454.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 30 |
| Yards | 39 | 249 |
| Average | 3.0 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 24 |
| Yards | 628 | 468 |
| Average | 17.0 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 50 |
| Yards | 2,862 | 1,997 |
| Average | 42.7 | 39.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 12 |
| Yards | 118 | 215 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 20 |
| Lost | 7 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 69 |
| Yards | 548 | 644 |
| Yards / Game | 45.7 | 53.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:23 | 29:37 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 190 | 168 |
| Conversions | 71 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 37.4% | 41.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 16 |
| Conversions | 17 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 54.8% | 68.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 57 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 50 |
| Score % | 87.8% | 87.7% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 33 |
| TD % | 75.6% | 57.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 27 |
| Made | 6 | 22 |
| Pct | 54.5% | 81.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 52 |
| Made | 41 | 47 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 90.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.