Fourth Down Data
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VAN

Vanderbilt

CommodoresBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-7#121 (-6.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
32· DRating
35· DPer play
29· DConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
14· FPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.064
Defensive EPA/play
+0.090
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.154
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.56
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#123
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 65 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
52th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
14th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2018OA -0.016 / -0.111similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3702Central Michigan2023OA +0.010 / -0.139similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3693Hawai'i2017OA -0.026 / -0.193similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3634South Carolina2020OA +0.001 / -0.037similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3605Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense351

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Hawai'i63-10W-9.5W54.5O
1vs Elon42-31W-19.5L51O
2vs Wake Forest25-45L+13.5L65O
3@ Northern Illinois38-28W+2.5W59.75O
4@ Alabama3-55L+40.5L58.5U
6vs Ole Miss28-52L+17.0L60O
7@ Georgia0-55L+38.0L58.5U
8@ Missouri14-17L+14.0W51.5U
10vs South Carolina27-38L+7.0L48O
11@ Kentucky24-21W+18.0W48U
12vs Florida31-24W+14.0W57.5U
13vs Tennessee0-56L+14.0L64.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off37thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off44thPass Def24thRush Def7thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05637th+0.10210th
Red Zone+0.13382th-0.06156th
Third Down+0.04744th+0.14627th
No Garbage Time-0.05240th+0.09312th
First Half-0.09630th+0.1288th
Second Half-0.01350th+0.07817th
Early Downs-0.03244th+0.1632th
Passing Downs-0.08133th+0.08224th
Standard Downs-0.04237th+0.1127th
Goal to Go+0.36995th+0.12424th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.7%Rush 56.3%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
347.3
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
23.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVanderbiltOpponents
Scoring
Points295432
Points / Game24.636.0
First Downs
Total210255
Rushing9490
Passing93144
Penalty2321
Rushing
Attempts445397
Yards1,9192,048
Yards / Carry4.35.2
Yards / Game159.9170.7
Touchdowns1325
Passing
Attempts346399
Completions200257
Completion %57.8%64.4%
Yards2,2483,486
Yards / Attempt6.58.7
Touchdowns2229
Interceptions66
Passer Rating129.89158.78
Total Offense
Plays791796
Yards4,1675,534
Yards / Play5.37.0
Yards / Game347.3461.2
Punt Returns
Returns925
Yards42379
Average4.715.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2424
Yards511443
Average21.318.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5943
Yards2,6761,761
Average45.441.0
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards4136
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2018
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties6372
Yards553658
Yards / Game46.154.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3728:23
Third Downs
Attempts171151
Conversions6360
Conversion %36.8%39.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2927
Conversions1112
Conversion %37.9%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips3545
Scores (TD + FG)3038
Score %85.7%84.4%
Touchdowns2428
TD %68.6%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1217
Made715
Pct58.3%88.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3652
Made3651
Pct100.0%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →