Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-7#129 (-21.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
15· DRating
70· BPer play
53· CConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
10· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.169
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.036
Defensive EPA/play
+0.112
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
51.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.076
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.18

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.76
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 54 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
45th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, run defense3842Oregon State2024OA +0.001 / -0.054similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3843Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3824South Carolina2020OA +0.001 / -0.037similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3795Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: run defense, pass defense, turnover rate374

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana51-48W-14.5L--
2@ Tulsa42-66L+14.0L59.5O
3@ Texas A&M21-45L+23.5L63.5O
4vs UL Monroe50-56L-4.0L60O
6@ Idaho21-16W+6.0W61.5U
7vs Texas State24-7W-14.0W55U
8@ Arkansas State3-47L+12.0L66.5U
10@ South Alabama19-14W+6.0W52U
11@ Ole Miss22-50L+23.0L67O
12vs New Mexico State47-34W+3.5W64.5O
13vs Georgia Southern24-34L-4.5L56O
14@ App State14-63L+14.0L56.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off34thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off37thPass Def43thRush Def5thRed Zone Def24th3rd Down Def24th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03872th+0.10510th
Red Zone+0.40799th+0.11824th
Third Down-0.07037th+0.12924th
No Garbage Time+0.03368th+0.11611th
First Half+0.05773th+0.10918th
Second Half+0.01865th+0.10011th
Early Downs-0.02653th+0.1315th
Passing Downs+0.23795th+0.00243th
Standard Downs-0.06934th+0.1455th
Goal to Go+0.39592th+0.29010th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
14.2%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
398.5
Pts/Drive
2.18
3rd Down%
36.0%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points338480
Points / Game28.240.0
First Downs
Total246302
Rushing115151
Passing121132
Penalty1019
Rushing
Attempts452537
Yards2,2042,839
Yards / Carry4.95.3
Yards / Game183.7236.6
Touchdowns2739
Passing
Attempts376362
Completions214236
Completion %56.9%65.2%
Yards2,5783,073
Yards / Attempt6.98.5
Touchdowns1621
Interceptions129
Passer Rating122.17150.67
Total Offense
Plays828899
Yards4,7825,912
Yards / Play5.86.6
Yards / Game398.5492.7
Punt Returns
Returns198
Yards233117
Average12.314.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4140
Yards900886
Average22.022.1
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts6451
Yards2,6062,285
Average40.744.8
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards10985
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost46
Penalties
Penalties5864
Yards487555
Yards / Game40.646.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3530:25
Third Downs
Attempts164169
Conversions5982
Conversion %36.0%48.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1817
Conversions910
Conversion %50.0%58.8%
Red Zone
Trips4260
Scores (TD + FG)3952
Score %92.9%86.7%
Touchdowns3243
TD %76.2%71.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1515
Made1011
Pct66.7%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4461
Made3659
Pct81.8%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →