Fourth Down Data
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FLA

Florida

GatorsBalanced
Southeastern Conference6-7#52 (+2.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

61· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
72· BPer play
81· BConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
31· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.192
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#16
market 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#7
recruiting 45 spots higher
55 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
35th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2018OA +0.003 / -0.016similar: passing offense, pass defense, run defense3532USC2024OA +0.030 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3323Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3254Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3235UCF2024OA +0.033 / -0.009similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate319

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida Atlantic35-14W-23.5L52U
2@ South Florida42-20W-29.5L55.5O
3vs Alabama29-31L+14.5W59.5O
4vs Tennessee38-14W-16.5W--
5@ Kentucky13-20L-7.5L55.5U
6vs Vanderbilt42-0W-38.5W59.5U
7@ LSU42-49L-10.5L59O
9vs Georgia7-34L+14.0L51U
10@ South Carolina17-40L-18.0L53O
11vs Samford70-52W-3.5W105.5O
12@ Missouri23-24L-8.5L69.5U
13vs Florida State24-21W-3.0P59U
17vs UCF17-29L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8-1
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLPL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off93thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off52thPass Def26thRush Def41thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04564th+0.03827th
Red Zone+0.16692th-0.01647th
Third Down+0.09152th-0.10780th
No Garbage Time+0.04766th+0.03632th
First Half-0.01342th+0.03932th
Second Half+0.10690th+0.03730th
Early Downs+0.07483th+0.07315th
Passing Downs-0.13119th+0.07726th
Standard Downs+0.13093th+0.01641th
Goal to Go+0.15479th-0.28880th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
462.8
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points399348
Points / Game30.726.8
First Downs
Total289260
Rushing125111
Passing148115
Penalty1634
Rushing
Attempts495478
Yards2,7132,131
Yards / Carry5.54.5
Yards / Game208.7163.9
Touchdowns2619
Passing
Attempts416395
Completions265226
Completion %63.7%57.2%
Yards3,3042,651
Yards / Attempt7.96.7
Touchdowns2719
Interceptions189
Passer Rating143.18124.91
Total Offense
Plays911873
Yards6,0174,782
Yards / Play6.65.5
Yards / Game462.8367.8
Punt Returns
Returns2410
Yards16292
Average6.89.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2432
Yards413773
Average17.224.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5265
Yards2,2932,664
Average44.141.0
Interception Returns
Returns918
Yards43302
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1111
Lost34
Penalties
Penalties10467
Yards918599
Yards / Game70.646.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2928:44
Third Downs
Attempts174176
Conversions7262
Conversion %41.4%35.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2520
Conversions149
Conversion %56.0%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips5143
Scores (TD + FG)4436
Score %86.3%83.7%
Touchdowns3624
TD %70.6%55.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1523
Made1016
Pct66.7%69.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5141
Made4940
Pct96.1%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →