Fourth Down Data
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USC

USC

TrojansPass-Heavy
Big Ten Conference7-6#26 (+5.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
68· CPer play
83· BConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
32· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.052
Defensive EPA/play
+0.030
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#35
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 11 spots higher
46 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Liberty2018OA +0.023 / -0.064similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3712Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3433Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, turnover rate3394UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3375Tulane2019OA +0.046 / +0.029similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate334

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ LSU27-20W+4.0W66.5U
2vs Utah State48-0W-27.0W61.25U
4@ Michigan24-27L-5.5L44O
5vs Wisconsin38-21W-15.5W51O
6@ Minnesota17-24L-8.0L49U
7vs Penn State30-33L+5.5W50O
8@ Maryland28-29L-7.5L56.5O
9vs Rutgers42-20W----
10@ Washington21-26L-2.5L55.5U
12vs Nebraska28-20W-9.0L50.5U
13@ UCLA19-13W-4.5W51.5U
14vs Notre Dame35-49L+7.5L51.5O
18@ Texas A&M35-31W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off68thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off51thPass Def94thRush Def7thRed Zone Def60th3rd Down Def94th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05268th+0.01637th
Red Zone+0.19785th-0.05760th
Third Down+0.11951th-0.17994th
No Garbage Time+0.04669th+0.02537th
First Half+0.07575th+0.03530th
Second Half+0.03054th-0.00353th
Early Downs+0.03471th+0.1126th
Passing Downs+0.07260th-0.18694th
Standard Downs+0.04368th+0.1087th
Goal to Go+0.12566th-0.05862th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.3%Rush 40.7%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
437.2
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
15.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points392313
Points / Game30.224.1
First Downs
Total303262
Rushing10095
Passing182146
Penalty2121
Rushing
Attempts366404
Yards1,8891,836
Yards / Carry5.24.5
Yards / Game145.3141.2
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts534437
Completions335296
Completion %62.7%67.7%
Yards3,7953,066
Yards / Attempt7.17.0
Touchdowns2915
Interceptions1512
Passer Rating134.73132.50
Total Offense
Plays900841
Yards5,6844,902
Yards / Play6.35.8
Yards / Game437.2377.1
Punt Returns
Returns1313
Yards7490
Average5.76.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2814
Yards646370
Average23.126.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4553
Yards2,1532,288
Average47.843.2
Interception Returns
Returns1215
Yards178440
Touchdowns14
Fumbles
Fumbles1510
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties7578
Yards668648
Yards / Game51.449.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2229:38
Third Downs
Attempts165167
Conversions7456
Conversion %44.8%33.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1735
Conversions820
Conversion %47.1%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips5547
Scores (TD + FG)4939
Score %89.1%83.0%
Touchdowns3926
TD %70.9%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2120
Made1416
Pct66.7%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5035
Made5033
Pct100.0%94.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →