Fourth Down Data
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LIB

Liberty

FlamesBalanced
Conference USA6-6#109 (-6.36)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
39· DRating
68· CPer play
55· CConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
20· DRating
50· CPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.046
Defensive EPA/play
-0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.310
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-2.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 32 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
27th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1USC2024OA +0.030 / -0.010similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3712Texas Tech2023OA -0.073 / +0.054similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3373Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, pass defense3274Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3235Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: passing offense, rushing offense, turnover rate320

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Old Dominion52-10W+5.0W59O
2@ Army14-38L+7.5L57U
4vs North Texas7-47L+10.5L67.5U
5@ New Mexico52-43W+7.0W65O
6@ New Mexico State41-49L-3.0L64O
7vs Troy22-16W+12.0W62.5U
8vs Idaho State48-41W-7.5L--
10@ Massachusetts59-62L-1.5L66O
11@ Virginia24-45L+24.0W58O
12@ Auburn0-53L+29.5L63.5U
13vs New Mexico State28-21W-7.0P72.5U
14vs Norfolk State52-17W-30.5W--

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-5
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLPW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off43thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off49thPass Def76thRush Def23thRed Zone Def43th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01453th+0.01645th
Red Zone+0.23292th+0.03843th
Third Down+0.04249th-0.12184th
No Garbage Time+0.04469th+0.01843th
First Half+0.01453th-0.02555th
Second Half+0.01351th+0.05931th
Early Downs+0.00356th+0.09612th
Passing Downs+0.06468th-0.11076th
Standard Downs-0.01343th+0.07823th
Goal to Go+0.36989th+0.16536th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.9%Rush 52.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
18.3
Yards/Game
422.9
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
15.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLibertyOpponents
Scoring
Points399442
Points / Game33.336.8
First Downs
Total276289
Rushing101140
Passing153135
Penalty2214
Rushing
Attempts487509
Yards1,9372,662
Yards / Carry4.05.2
Yards / Game161.4221.8
Touchdowns3027
Passing
Attempts448413
Completions245234
Completion %54.7%56.7%
Yards3,1383,155
Yards / Attempt7.07.6
Touchdowns2126
Interceptions1812
Passer Rating120.96135.79
Total Offense
Plays935922
Yards5,0755,817
Yards / Play5.46.3
Yards / Game422.9484.8
Punt Returns
Returns1314
Yards136155
Average10.511.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3243
Yards614962
Average19.222.4
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts7260
Yards2,5592,299
Average35.538.3
Interception Returns
Returns1218
Yards185218
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties5165
Yards458612
Yards / Game38.251.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2730:33
Third Downs
Attempts191169
Conversions8060
Conversion %41.9%35.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2128
Conversions1214
Conversion %57.1%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5055
Scores (TD + FG)4344
Score %86.0%80.0%
Touchdowns3733
TD %74.0%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1119
Made715
Pct63.6%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5255
Made5053
Pct96.2%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →