Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#49 (+2.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
43· CRating
43· CPer play
66· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
54· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
-0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
46.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.052
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.78
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#49
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#56
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
model & recruiting agree
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
77th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nebraska2020OA -0.001 / -0.002similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3442Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, pass defense3413Oklahoma State2023OA +0.053 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3384Liberty2018OA +0.023 / -0.064similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3375Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense337

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wyoming33-35L-14.0L50.5O
2vs Oregon30-38L+6.0L69U
3vs Tarleton State41-3W----
4@ West Virginia13-20L-6.0L55U
5vs Houston49-28W-8.5W50.5O
6@ Baylor39-14W-1.5W60.5U
7vs Kansas State21-38L-1.0L56.5O
8@ BYU14-27L-4.5L52U
10vs TCU35-28W----
11@ Kansas16-13W+3.5W61U
12vs UCF24-23W-3.0L60U
13@ Texas7-57L----
16vs California34-14W-3.5W58U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off38thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off72thPass Def29thRush Def74thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01839th-0.01458th
Red Zone+0.09069th-0.15081th
Third Down+0.29072th+0.23731th
No Garbage Time-0.00842th-0.02159th
First Half+0.04559th+0.01844th
Second Half-0.08521th-0.04769th
Early Downs-0.09721th-0.06262th
Passing Downs+0.03042th+0.11329th
Standard Downs-0.04238th-0.07574th
Goal to Go+0.22886th-0.13771th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
386.7
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
13.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points356338
Points / Game27.426.0
First Downs
Total286268
Rushing130109
Passing135137
Penalty2122
Rushing
Attempts474480
Yards2,1152,085
Yards / Carry4.54.3
Yards / Game162.7160.4
Touchdowns1719
Passing
Attempts470443
Completions284267
Completion %60.4%60.3%
Yards2,9122,979
Yards / Attempt6.26.7
Touchdowns2416
Interceptions1813
Passer Rating121.66122.81
Total Offense
Plays944923
Yards5,0275,064
Yards / Play5.35.5
Yards / Game386.7389.5
Punt Returns
Returns1211
Yards23484
Average19.57.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3322
Yards841464
Average25.521.1
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5661
Yards2,5482,521
Average45.541.3
Interception Returns
Returns1318
Yards121236
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1115
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties7173
Yards649611
Yards / Game49.947.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:13
Third Downs
Attempts195191
Conversions7779
Conversion %39.5%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3725
Conversions2411
Conversion %64.9%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips5050
Scores (TD + FG)4341
Score %86.0%82.0%
Touchdowns3226
TD %64.0%52.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2224
Made1621
Pct72.7%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4036
Made4035
Pct100.0%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →