Fourth Down Data
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UNLV

UNLV

RebelsBalanced
Mountain West Conference10-4#70 (-1.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

48· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
89· BPer play
87· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
23· DRating
32· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.075
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#54
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington2023OA +0.172 / +0.019similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4302Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4043Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense4004UCF2023OA +0.077 / -0.002similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, passing offense3795Houston2018OA +0.075 / -0.078similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA372

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Idaho State38-31W-29.5L66.25O
1@ Sam Houston38-21W----
2vs UCLA30-23W+1.5W54.5U
4@ Miami (OH)41-38W-2.0W49.5O
6@ Wyoming31-17W-4.0W50.5U
7vs Air Force51-48W-5.5L82.5O
8@ Boise State31-56L+12.5L80.5O
10vs New Mexico35-40L+1.5L62O
11@ Colorado State42-10W-4.5W62U
12vs Utah State29-26W-2.5W64.5U
13vs Hawai'i38-10W----
14@ Nevada42-17W-7.5W53.5O
15@ Boise State21-38L----
18@ Ohio10-17L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off87thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off85thPass Def64thRush Def11thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13390th+0.04727th
Red Zone+0.11173th+0.16516th
Third Down+0.28885th-0.16492th
No Garbage Time+0.13190th+0.02732th
First Half+0.11281th+0.02335th
Second Half+0.15690th+0.07120th
Early Downs+0.08085th+0.1202th
Passing Downs+0.17686th-0.06864th
Standard Downs+0.11187th+0.10511th
Goal to Go+0.03057th-0.20177th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.0%Rush 54.0%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
446.4
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUNLVOpponents
Scoring
Points477392
Points / Game34.128.0
First Downs
Total325302
Rushing140124
Passing153143
Penalty3235
Rushing
Attempts497476
Yards2,7372,484
Yards / Carry5.55.2
Yards / Game195.5177.4
Touchdowns3324
Passing
Attempts424444
Completions279266
Completion %65.8%59.9%
Yards3,5123,384
Yards / Attempt8.37.6
Touchdowns2423
Interceptions914
Passer Rating149.81134.72
Total Offense
Plays921920
Yards6,2495,868
Yards / Play6.86.4
Yards / Game446.4419.1
Punt Returns
Returns1413
Yards10362
Average7.44.8
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2332
Yards449748
Average19.523.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4746
Yards2,0321,902
Average43.241.3
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards205154
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties10796
Yards927873
Yards / Game66.262.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4329:17
Third Downs
Attempts169170
Conversions7756
Conversion %45.6%32.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2336
Conversions1319
Conversion %56.5%52.8%
Red Zone
Trips6039
Scores (TD + FG)5335
Score %88.3%89.7%
Touchdowns4227
TD %70.0%69.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2022
Made1515
Pct75.0%68.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5845
Made5843
Pct100.0%95.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →