Fourth Down Data
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UCF

UCF

KnightsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference6-7#62 (+0.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
80· BPer play
47· CConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
56· CRating
17· DPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.104
Defensive EPA/play
+0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
50.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.97
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#37
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#59
recruiting 3 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, passing offense3802Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3753UAB2022OA -0.012 / -0.013similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3634Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: defensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3585Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, passing offense356

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kent State56-6W----
2@ Boise State18-16W-3.5L58.5U
3vs Villanova48-14W-27.0W54.5O
4@ Kansas State31-44L+4.0L52.5O
5vs Baylor35-36L-12.5L55.5O
6@ Kansas22-51L+2.0L65O
8@ Oklahoma29-31L+19.0W65U
9vs West Virginia28-41L-7.0L59.5O
10@ Cincinnati28-26W-4.5L59.5U
11vs Oklahoma State45-3W+2.5W64.5U
12@ Texas Tech23-24L+3.0W60U
13vs Houston27-13W-13.5W61.5U
17vs Georgia Tech17-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off79thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off97thPass Def43thRush Def5thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13993th+0.08916th
Red Zone-0.07532th+0.03041th
Third Down+0.53097th+0.08174th
No Garbage Time+0.10282th+0.08316th
First Half+0.15287th+0.04438th
Second Half+0.12590th+0.1357th
Early Downs-0.00362th+0.1105th
Passing Downs+0.29894th+0.04843th
Standard Downs+0.06379th+0.1115th
Goal to Go+0.11671th+0.17327th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.9%Rush 59.1%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
487.0
Pts/Drive
2.56
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points407335
Points / Game31.325.8
First Downs
Total300283
Rushing147139
Passing132124
Penalty2120
Rushing
Attempts529516
Yards2,9672,526
Yards / Carry5.64.9
Yards / Game228.2194.3
Touchdowns2826
Passing
Attempts366366
Completions229210
Completion %62.6%57.4%
Yards3,3642,557
Yards / Attempt9.27.0
Touchdowns2412
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating155.40120.32
Total Offense
Plays895882
Yards6,3315,083
Yards / Play7.15.8
Yards / Game487.0391.0
Punt Returns
Returns1714
Yards156165
Average9.211.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1729
Yards370662
Average21.822.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3647
Yards1,4852,077
Average41.344.2
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards13560
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles139
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties7961
Yards651512
Yards / Game50.139.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5331:07
Third Downs
Attempts166172
Conversions8368
Conversion %50.0%39.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2324
Conversions1314
Conversion %56.5%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips5356
Scores (TD + FG)4046
Score %75.5%82.1%
Touchdowns3230
TD %60.4%53.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2125
Made1319
Pct61.9%76.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5035
Made4834
Pct96.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →