Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference4-8#110 (-10.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
40· CRating
64· CPer play
56· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
22· DPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.035
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#90
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 31 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Central Michigan2023OA +0.010 / -0.139similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3782UL Monroe2019OA +0.013 / -0.120similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3743Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3714NC State2025OA +0.056 / -0.039similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3705Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA368

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Morgan State38-21W-28.5L51.5O
2vs Tulane31-33L+13.5W51O
3@ Auburn15-31L+24.5W54U
4vs Coastal Carolina20-38L-15.5L51.5O
5@ North Texas22-36L+12.5L63.5U
6@ Troy24-31L-2.5L47O
8vs Arkansas State14-15L-6.5W55.5O
9@ Georgia State38-31W----
10vs Louisiana22-31L+13.0W58U
12@ UL Monroe26-14W+4.5W47.5U
13vs Southern Miss42-35W-10.5L55.5O
14@ Texas State26-49L+19.5L57.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off61thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off63thPass Def16thRush Def19thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05270th+0.08113th
Red Zone+0.14681th+0.2881th
Third Down+0.14763th+0.12037th
No Garbage Time+0.04167th+0.04626th
First Half+0.01351th+0.07220th
Second Half+0.09182th+0.09116th
Early Downs+0.00454th-0.02252th
Passing Downs+0.09478th+0.11116th
Standard Downs+0.03161th+0.06519th
Goal to Go+0.09463th+0.3107th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.9%Rush 63.1%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
380.8
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
21.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points318365
Points / Game26.530.4
First Downs
Total248240
Rushing132117
Passing96104
Penalty2019
Rushing
Attempts531444
Yards2,3962,119
Yards / Carry4.54.8
Yards / Game199.7176.6
Touchdowns3025
Passing
Attempts310340
Completions212207
Completion %68.4%60.9%
Yards2,1742,460
Yards / Attempt7.07.2
Touchdowns1319
Interceptions66
Passer Rating137.26136.57
Total Offense
Plays841784
Yards4,5704,579
Yards / Play5.45.8
Yards / Game380.8381.6
Punt Returns
Returns1219
Yards130180
Average10.89.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1025
Yards99573
Average9.922.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4944
Yards1,9791,886
Average40.442.9
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards5270
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1611
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties7787
Yards644691
Yards / Game53.757.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0928:51
Third Downs
Attempts176156
Conversions7562
Conversion %42.6%39.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3425
Conversions1818
Conversion %52.9%72.0%
Red Zone
Trips4443
Scores (TD + FG)3541
Score %79.5%95.3%
Touchdowns3030
TD %68.2%69.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1018
Made712
Pct70.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3742
Made3341
Pct89.2%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made33
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →