Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference9-4#86 (-1.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
70· BRating
65· CPer play
79· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
22· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.141
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.040
Defensive EPA/play
+0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.29
own return game
Return Defense
-0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense4032Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3823Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, run defense3734Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense3675Texas Tech2024OA +0.014 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate365

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Kentucky42-34W----
2@ Louisiana21-49L+11.5L56.5O
3@ Arizona State30-21W+20.5W56.5U
4vs Buffalo31-50L-6.0L60.5O
5vs Massachusetts20-13W-20.0L53.5U
6@ Western Michigan45-23W+6.0W55.5O
7vs Northern Illinois10-39L-2.5L66U
8@ Ball State20-16W+2.5W59U
9vs Toledo24-27L+6.5W54.5U
11@ Akron34-28W+7.5W60U
12@ Kent State31-24W+2.0W55O
13vs Central Michigan38-19W----
17@ San José State41-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS7-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off59thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off73thPass Def40thRush Def12thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02459th+0.06121th
Red Zone+0.19592th+0.18516th
Third Down+0.19573th+0.13331th
No Garbage Time+0.04268th+0.03926th
First Half+0.07874th+0.01937th
Second Half-0.03941th+0.10010th
Early Downs-0.04441th+0.07313th
Passing Downs+0.06064th+0.02140th
Standard Downs+0.00659th+0.08112th
Goal to Go+0.32192th+0.18818th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
365.5
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points387370
Points / Game29.828.5
First Downs
Total277274
Rushing119107
Passing128129
Penalty3038
Rushing
Attempts503472
Yards1,8402,029
Yards / Carry3.74.3
Yards / Game141.5156.1
Touchdowns2523
Passing
Attempts392400
Completions244226
Completion %62.2%56.5%
Yards2,9112,872
Yards / Attempt7.47.2
Touchdowns2323
Interceptions1213
Passer Rating137.86129.29
Total Offense
Plays895872
Yards4,7514,901
Yards / Play5.35.6
Yards / Game365.5377.0
Punt Returns
Returns918
Yards52100
Average5.85.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4036
Yards760722
Average19.020.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5055
Yards2,1942,301
Average43.941.8
Interception Returns
Returns1312
Yards14239
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1511
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties103110
Yards9551,022
Yards / Game73.578.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1728:43
Third Downs
Attempts176176
Conversions7974
Conversion %44.9%42.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2320
Conversions1112
Conversion %47.8%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4949
Scores (TD + FG)4645
Score %93.9%91.8%
Touchdowns3734
TD %75.5%69.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1416
Pct82.4%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4744
Made4740
Pct100.0%90.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →