Fourth Down Data
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UK

Kentucky

WildcatsBalanced
Southeastern Conference10-3#47 (+3.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
70· BRating
73· BPer play
97· A+Consistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
77· BPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.069
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.6%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.127
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.117
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.63

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
AP 29 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#41
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
recruiting 16 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2022OA +0.064 / +0.054similar: havoc rate, pass defense, takeaway rate3762Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3743Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3394Utah2022OA +0.080 / +0.142similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3375Kansas State2021OA +0.051 / +0.065similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate321

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UL Monroe45-10W-31.0W54.5O
2vs Missouri35-28W-5.5W52.5O
3vs Chattanooga28-23W----
4@ South Carolina16-10W-4.5W48.5U
5vs Florida20-13W+7.5W55.5U
6vs LSU42-21W-3.0W50.5O
7@ Georgia13-30L+23.5W44.5U
9@ Mississippi State17-31L-1.0L47O
10vs Tennessee42-45L-1.0L57O
11@ Vanderbilt34-17W-21.0L52.5U
12vs New Mexico State56-16W-36.3W59.5O
13@ Louisville52-21W+3.0W57O
18vs Iowa20-17W-3.5L44U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off72thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off92thPass Def89thRush Def35thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07280th-0.04968th
Red Zone+0.11678th+0.2462th
Third Down+0.36192th+0.07250th
No Garbage Time+0.05268th-0.07679th
First Half+0.10180th-0.13188th
Second Half+0.03965th+0.02238th
Early Downs+0.05773th+0.01635th
Passing Downs+0.07474th-0.19389th
Standard Downs+0.07072th+0.02735th
Goal to Go+0.17683th+0.19521th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.5%Rush 57.5%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
424.1
Pts/Drive
2.63
3rd Down%
50.7%
3&Out%
14.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points420282
Points / Game32.321.7
First Downs
Total297241
Rushing14082
Passing137137
Penalty2022
Rushing
Attempts496401
Yards2,5941,587
Yards / Carry5.24.0
Yards / Game199.5122.1
Touchdowns2712
Passing
Attempts366403
Completions242268
Completion %66.1%66.5%
Yards2,9192,842
Yards / Attempt8.07.1
Touchdowns2420
Interceptions139
Passer Rating147.65137.65
Total Offense
Plays862804
Yards5,5134,429
Yards / Play6.45.5
Yards / Game424.1340.7
Punt Returns
Returns169
Yards16550
Average10.35.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1813
Yards301276
Average16.721.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3962
Yards1,7562,662
Average45.042.9
Interception Returns
Returns913
Yards157161
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1610
Lost103
Penalties
Penalties6378
Yards548598
Yards / Game42.246.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3627:24
Third Downs
Attempts150165
Conversions7664
Conversion %50.7%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1618
Conversions65
Conversion %37.5%27.8%
Red Zone
Trips5438
Scores (TD + FG)4634
Score %85.2%89.5%
Touchdowns3925
TD %72.2%65.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1319
Made1015
Pct76.9%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5632
Made5431
Pct96.4%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →