Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference8-5#32 (+5.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
64· CRating
76· BPer play
85· BConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
74· BPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.068
Defensive EPA/play
-0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.129
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.048
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.52
own return game
Return Defense
-0.26
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#61
model 29 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 31 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: turnover rate, run defense, offensive EPA3712Baylor2021OA -0.042 / +0.084similar: defensive EPA, run defense, turnover rate3583Louisiana Tech2026OA +0.085 / +0.038similar: run defense, takeaway rate, rushing offense3574Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3555Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense350

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Stanford24-7W-3.0W53U
2vs Southern Illinois31-23W-16.5L55.5U
3vs Nevada38-17W+1.3W50.5O
4@ Oklahoma State20-31L+5.0L47.5O
5vs Oklahoma31-37L+10.5W52.5O
7vs Iowa State20-33L+6.5L51.5O
8@ Texas Tech25-24W+1.0W60.5U
9vs TCU31-12W-3.5W58.5U
10@ Kansas35-10W-24.0W56U
11vs West Virginia34-17W-6.5W47O
12vs Baylor10-20L+3.0L52.5U
13@ Texas17-22L----
19vs LSU42-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS6-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off85thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off77thPass Def52thRush Def63thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06776th-0.03054th
Red Zone+0.12783th+0.04334th
Third Down+0.21577th+0.06851th
No Garbage Time+0.06574th-0.05367th
First Half+0.08077th+0.03833th
Second Half+0.05374th-0.10184th
Early Downs+0.02663th-0.05564th
Passing Downs+0.00851th-0.01152th
Standard Downs+0.09585th-0.04163th
Goal to Go+0.25290th-0.37086th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.6%Rush 58.4%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
361.9
Pts/Drive
2.56
3rd Down%
44.1%
3&Out%
17.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points358273
Points / Game27.521.0
First Downs
Total234233
Rushing11193
Passing109124
Penalty1416
Rushing
Attempts436458
Yards2,1111,686
Yards / Carry4.83.7
Yards / Game162.4129.7
Touchdowns2914
Passing
Attempts311377
Completions204258
Completion %65.6%68.4%
Yards2,5942,798
Yards / Attempt8.37.4
Touchdowns1415
Interceptions711
Passer Rating146.01138.07
Total Offense
Plays747835
Yards4,7054,484
Yards / Play6.35.4
Yards / Game361.9344.9
Punt Returns
Returns1011
Yards100117
Average10.010.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2721
Yards735474
Average27.222.6
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts4145
Yards1,7931,787
Average43.739.7
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards10887
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1117
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties7069
Yards589566
Yards / Game45.343.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5430:06
Third Downs
Attempts145177
Conversions6471
Conversion %44.1%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2033
Conversions1520
Conversion %75.0%60.6%
Red Zone
Trips4541
Scores (TD + FG)3838
Score %84.4%92.7%
Touchdowns3026
TD %66.7%63.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1824
Made1219
Pct66.7%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4529
Made4428
Pct97.8%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →