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Baylor

BearsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference12-2#16 (+7.74)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
57· CPer play
71· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
76· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.095
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.205
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.47

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.64
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
AP 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#40
model 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#39
model 23 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
77th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3942Louisiana2021OA +0.026 / +0.005similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3723Maryland2026OA -0.021 / +0.097similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3684Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3615Kansas State2021OA +0.051 / +0.065similar: defensive EPA, run defense, turnover rate358

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas State29-20W-14.0L53.5U
2vs Texas Southern66-7W-44.5W53O
3@ Kansas45-7W-18.0W49.5O
4vs Iowa State31-29W+7.0W46.5O
5@ Oklahoma State14-24L+3.5L47.5U
6vs West Virginia45-20W-2.5W44.5O
7vs BYU38-24W-6.0W50.5O
9vs Texas31-24W-3.0W61.5U
10@ TCU28-30L-6.5L58.5U
11vs Oklahoma27-14W+5.5W63U
12@ Kansas State20-10W-1.0W50U
13vs Texas Tech27-24W-14.5L52U
14@ Oklahoma State21-16W+5.5W46.5U
18@ Ole Miss21-7W+1.0W55U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
5-9
35.7%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off67thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off75thPass Def75thRush Def62thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03860th-0.06775th
Red Zone+0.16591th-0.08561th
Third Down+0.20775th+0.01166th
No Garbage Time+0.03156th-0.07377th
First Half+0.02856th-0.09480th
Second Half+0.04871th-0.04260th
Early Downs+0.02562th-0.07171th
Passing Downs+0.01253th-0.11475th
Standard Downs+0.05067th-0.03862th
Goal to Go+0.15780th-0.51493th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.0%Rush 61.0%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
422.8
Pts/Drive
2.47
3rd Down%
42.1%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points443256
Points / Game31.618.3
First Downs
Total289269
Rushing15699
Passing120140
Penalty1330
Rushing
Attempts572497
Yards3,0761,652
Yards / Carry5.43.3
Yards / Game219.7118.0
Touchdowns2916
Passing
Attempts366444
Completions237267
Completion %64.8%60.1%
Yards2,8433,192
Yards / Attempt7.87.2
Touchdowns2413
Interceptions719
Passer Rating147.82121.63
Total Offense
Plays938941
Yards5,9194,844
Yards / Play6.35.1
Yards / Game422.8346.0
Punt Returns
Returns1912
Yards15444
Average8.13.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns306
Yards650112
Average21.718.7
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5061
Yards2,2492,657
Average45.043.6
Interception Returns
Returns197
Yards25449
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1619
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties7572
Yards677617
Yards / Game48.444.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2328:36
Third Downs
Attempts183200
Conversions7768
Conversion %42.1%34.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3528
Conversions2217
Conversion %62.9%60.7%
Red Zone
Trips5841
Scores (TD + FG)5134
Score %87.9%82.9%
Touchdowns4022
TD %69.0%53.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2028
Made1418
Pct70.0%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5728
Made5728
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →