Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Analytics

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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishRun-Heavy

FBS Independents9-4#11 (+8.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall

Offense

76· BRating

62· CPer play

87· BConsistency

33· DBig plays

Defense

83· BRating

62· CPer play

77· BConsistency

Situational

77· BRed-zone O

8· FRed-zone D

59· C3rd down O

34· D3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.064

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.054

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.026

Defensive EPA/play

-0.055

lower = better

Off Success Rate

50.5%

Def Success Rate

44.6%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

22.5%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

24.3%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.081

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

+0.135

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+2.37

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.35

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+1.41

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.39

own return game

Return Defense

+0.23

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#11

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

#18

model 7 spots higher

Market (Vegas)

#37

model 26 higher

Recruiting Rank

#7

recruiting 4 spots higher

56 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

72th

Opp-adjusted defense

70th

Offensive EPA/play

63th

Defensive EPA/play

62th

Offensive success rate

87th

Explosiveness

33th

Defensive havoc

61th

Points per drive

69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kentucky2021OA +0.063 / +0.042similar: havoc rate, pass defense, takeaway rate376 2UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate358 3Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive EPA355 4Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate350 5Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate346

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ Ohio State	10-21	L	+17.0	W	59	U
2	vs Marshall	21-26	L	-20.5	L	50	U
3	vs California	24-17	W	-12.0	L	40.5	O
4	@ North Carolina	45-32	W	+1.5	W	55.5	O
6	vs BYU	28-20	W	-4.0	W	51	U
7	vs Stanford	14-16	L	-17.0	L	53.5	U
8	vs UNLV	44-21	W	-25.5	L	47.5	O
9	@ Syracuse	41-24	W	+2.5	W	48	O
10	vs Clemson	35-14	W	+4.0	W	44.5	O
11	@ Navy	35-32	W	-16.5	L	41.5	O
12	vs Boston College	44-0	W	-21.0	W	45	U
13	@ USC	27-38	L	+5.0	L	64.5	O
18	@ South Carolina	45-38	W	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

7-6

53.8%

O/U Record

8-5

61.5%

Straight Up

9-4

69.2%

Home ATS3-4

Away ATS4-2

Favorite ATS3-5

Underdog ATS4-1

Last 5 ATS

WLWLW

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.027	61th	-0.031	54th
Red Zone	+0.124	78th	+0.231	8th
Third Down	+0.116	60th	+0.122	34th
No Garbage Time	+0.024	60th	-0.055	64th
First Half	+0.030	59th	-0.151	87th
Second Half	+0.024	62th	+0.081	16th
Early Downs	+0.051	79th	-0.040	54th
Passing Downs	+0.043	58th	-0.077	73th
Standard Downs	+0.021	62th	-0.005	43th
Goal to Go	-0.009	53th	+0.201	16th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.9%Rush 61.1%

Havoc/Game

12.7

Havoc Rate

19.4%

TO Margin

-0.2

Explosive/G

14.6

Yards/Game

396.2

Pts/Drive

2.54

3rd Down%

47.2%

3&Out%

18.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Notre Dame	Opponents
Scoring
Points	413	299
Points / Game	31.8	23.0
First Downs
Total	281	231
Rushing	139	98
Passing	123	108
Penalty	19	25
Rushing
Attempts	532	436
Yards	2,458	1,707
Yards / Carry	4.6	3.9
Yards / Game	189.1	131.3
Touchdowns	25	16
Passing
Attempts	338	395
Completions	211	232
Completion %	62.4%	58.7%
Yards	2,692	2,574
Yards / Attempt	8.0	6.5
Touchdowns	25	20
Interceptions	11	10
Passer Rating	147.23	125.12
Total Offense
Plays	870	831
Yards	5,150	4,281
Yards / Play	5.9	5.2
Yards / Game	396.2	329.3
Punt Returns
Returns	28	10
Yards	286	81
Average	10.2	8.1
Touchdowns	1	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	18	19
Yards	347	368
Average	19.3	19.4
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	49	68
Yards	2,151	2,579
Average	43.9	37.9
Interception Returns
Returns	10	11
Yards	132	242
Touchdowns	2	3
Fumbles
Fumbles	11	12
Lost	7	5
Penalties
Penalties	60	67
Yards	550	567
Yards / Game	42.3	43.6
Time of Possession
Per Game	32:12	27:48
Third Downs
Attempts	176	168
Conversions	83	61
Conversion %	47.2%	36.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	16	22
Conversions	7	10
Conversion %	43.8%	45.5%
Red Zone
Trips	50	34
Scores (TD + FG)	43	32
Score %	86.0%	94.1%
Touchdowns	35	27
TD %	70.0%	79.4%
Field Goals
Attempts	19	12
Made	14	10
Pct	73.7%	83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	49	34
Made	49	31
Pct	100.0%	91.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	4	5
Made	1	2

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →