Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersRun-Heavy
American Conference2-0#14 (+8.99)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
92· A-Rating
72· BPer play
49· CConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
35· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.211
Defensive EPA/play
+0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.197
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 12 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
52th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3762Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3693Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3564Mississippi State2019OA +0.064 / -0.030similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3535Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate349

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ UNLV27-21W+4.0W55.5U
1vs Arkansas State42-24W-11.0W53.5O
2@ Boise State------
3vs UT Martin------
5@ Charlotte------
6vs UAB------
7@ Tulane------
8vs East Carolina------
9vs Army------
11@ South Florida------
12@ Navy------
13vs Temple------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
2-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off93thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off50thPass Def85thRush Def7thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.21180th+0.01535th
Red Zone+0.16158th-0.30265th
Third Down+0.08450th-0.16157th
No Garbage Time+0.21174th+0.01537th
First Half+0.16764th+0.17018th
Second Half+0.24981th-0.14559th
Early Downs+0.29691th+0.13317th
Passing Downs-0.07036th-0.39385th
Standard Downs+0.32793th+0.2617th
Goal to Go+0.43163th+0.18362th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.3%Rush 66.7%
Havoc/Game
16.5
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
470.5
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points6945
Points / Game34.522.5
First Downs
Total4445
Rushing2317
Passing1624
Penalty54
Rushing
Attempts8270
Yards530278
Yards / Carry6.54.0
Yards / Game265.0139.0
Touchdowns53
Passing
Attempts4168
Completions2746
Completion %65.9%67.6%
Yards411616
Yards / Attempt10.09.1
Touchdowns43
Interceptions24
Passer Rating172.50146.54
Total Offense
Plays123138
Yards941894
Yards / Play7.76.5
Yards / Game470.5447.0
Punt Returns
Returns23
Yards18
Average0.52.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns41
Yards9815
Average24.515.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts99
Yards402362
Average44.740.2
Interception Returns
Returns42
Yards3717
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties1112
Yards115112
Yards / Game57.556.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0932:51
Third Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions88
Conversion %40.0%32.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts05
Conversions02
Conversion %—40.0%
Red Zone
Trips67
Scores (TD + FG)64
Score %100.0%57.1%
Touchdowns44
TD %66.7%57.1%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made21
Pct100.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts96
Made96
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →