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OHIO
Ohio
BobcatsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference9-4#71 (+0.27)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
47· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
80· BPer play
88· BConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
67· CPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.074
Defensive EPA/play
-0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.6%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.75
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 4 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense62th
Opp-adjusted defense51th
Offensive EPA/play81th
Defensive EPA/play68th
Offensive success rate91th
Explosiveness89th
Defensive havoc78th
Points per drive86th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon State2022OA +0.047 / +0.105similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3902Penn State2018OA +0.000 / +0.080similar: run defense, passing offense, rushing offense3713Nevada2026OA +0.038 / +0.011similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense3584Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3495Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate344
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Hampton | 59-0 | W | -6.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Purdue | 21-44 | L | +3.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 3 | vs Kansas | 42-30 | W | -7.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 4 | @ Eastern Michigan | 27-20 | W | +1.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 5 | @ Massachusetts | 58-50 | W | -4.5 | W | 53 | O |
| 6 | vs Central Michigan | 23-26 | L | -10.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Bowling Green | 48-30 | W | -9.5 | W | 62 | O |
| 8 | vs Kent State | 48-3 | W | -17.0 | W | 47 | O |
| 10 | vs Miami (OH) | 45-28 | W | -6.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 11 | vs Toledo | 38-10 | W | +3.0 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Akron | 34-37 | L | -14.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 13 | @ Buffalo | 24-31 | L | -6.5 | L | 55 | P |
| 17 | vs UAB | 41-6 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.083 | 84th | -0.100 | 72th |
| Red Zone | +0.395 | 98th | -0.064 | 60th |
| Third Down | -0.096 | 34th | -0.256 | 85th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.080 | 82th | -0.079 | 67th |
| First Half | +0.020 | 65th | -0.046 | 53th |
| Second Half | +0.155 | 95th | -0.154 | 85th |
| Early Downs | +0.108 | 94th | -0.028 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | +0.007 | 58th | -0.088 | 66th |
| Standard Downs | +0.116 | 92th | -0.108 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | +0.383 | 91th | -0.082 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.7%Rush 63.3%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
433.1
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
20.1%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 508 | 315 |
| Points / Game | 39.1 | 24.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 289 | 236 |
| Rushing | 148 | 74 |
| Passing | 104 | 142 |
| Penalty | 37 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 554 | 416 |
| Yards | 3,179 | 1,436 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 244.5 | 110.5 |
| Touchdowns | 44 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 321 | 496 |
| Completions | 178 | 280 |
| Completion % | 55.5% | 56.5% |
| Yards | 2,451 | 3,395 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 134.54 | 126.95 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 875 | 912 |
| Yards | 5,630 | 4,831 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 433.1 | 371.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 18 |
| Yards | 188 | 105 |
| Average | 8.5 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 73 |
| Yards | 728 | 1,272 |
| Average | 21.4 | 17.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 77 |
| Yards | 2,352 | 2,991 |
| Average | 40.6 | 38.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 9 |
| Yards | 145 | 123 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 16 |
| Lost | 12 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 100 |
| Yards | 590 | 898 |
| Yards / Game | 45.4 | 69.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:55 | 29:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 163 | 194 |
| Conversions | 67 | 58 |
| Conversion % | 41.1% | 29.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 30 |
| Conversions | 8 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 57 | 37 |
| Score % | 91.9% | 88.1% |
| Touchdowns | 50 | 24 |
| TD % | 80.6% | 57.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 15 | 17 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 94.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 64 | 34 |
| Made | 61 | 32 |
| Pct | 95.3% | 94.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.