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LIB
Liberty
FlamesBalancedConference USA8-5#44 (+3.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
74· BRating
77· BPer play
77· BConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
71· BPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
-0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.129
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.143
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.69
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.22
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#44
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#9
market 35 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense53th
Offensive EPA/play78th
Defensive EPA/play72th
Offensive success rate82th
Explosiveness86th
Defensive havoc80th
Points per drive83th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon State2022OA +0.047 / +0.105similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA3652UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3623Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense3504Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: defensive success rate, run defense, offensive success rate3425Central Michigan2019OA -0.065 / -0.005similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate341
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Campbell | 48-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Troy | 21-13 | W | -6.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 3 | vs Old Dominion | 45-17 | W | -27.5 | W | 53 | O |
| 4 | @ Syracuse | 21-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ UAB | 36-12 | W | +2.0 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Middle Tennessee | 41-13 | W | -19.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 7 | @ UL Monroe | 28-31 | L | -32.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 8 | @ North Texas | 35-26 | W | -21.5 | L | 60.25 | O |
| 9 | vs Massachusetts | 62-17 | W | -36.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Ole Miss | 14-27 | L | +9.5 | L | 67.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Louisiana | 14-42 | L | -4.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Army | 16-31 | L | -3.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 16 | vs Eastern Michigan | 56-20 | W | -9.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.083 | 83th | -0.059 | 72th |
| Red Zone | +0.044 | 64th | -0.128 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.317 | 88th | -0.076 | 75th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.067 | 76th | -0.068 | 76th |
| First Half | +0.029 | 57th | -0.042 | 62th |
| Second Half | +0.142 | 95th | -0.076 | 76th |
| Early Downs | +0.121 | 95th | -0.055 | 65th |
| Passing Downs | -0.074 | 30th | -0.037 | 62th |
| Standard Downs | +0.163 | 96th | -0.071 | 71th |
| Goal to Go | -0.168 | 29th | +0.252 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
436.2
Pts/Drive
2.69
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
15.3%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Liberty | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 437 | 280 |
| Points / Game | 33.6 | 21.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 295 | 240 |
| Rushing | 135 | 116 |
| Passing | 133 | 97 |
| Penalty | 27 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 508 | 520 |
| Yards | 2,356 | 1,819 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 181.2 | 139.9 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 354 |
| Completions | 226 | 200 |
| Completion % | 59.3% | 56.5% |
| Yards | 3,315 | 2,344 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.7 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 153.11 | 120.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 889 | 874 |
| Yards | 5,671 | 4,163 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 436.2 | 320.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 12 |
| Yards | 190 | 90 |
| Average | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 21 |
| Yards | 735 | 382 |
| Average | 19.3 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 70 |
| Yards | 2,011 | 2,976 |
| Average | 42.8 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 15 |
| Yards | 49 | 127 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 8 |
| Lost | 7 | 2 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 78 |
| Yards | 865 | 720 |
| Yards / Game | 66.5 | 55.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:17 | 29:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 161 | 186 |
| Conversions | 69 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 33.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 29 |
| Conversions | 13 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 43.3% | 51.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 29 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 72.5% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 22 |
| TD % | 71.1% | 55.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 18 |
| Made | 5 | 12 |
| Pct | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 57 | 33 |
| Made | 52 | 32 |
| Pct | 91.2% | 97.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.