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LIB
Liberty
FlamesRun-HeavyConference USA8-4#80 (-1.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
41· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
66· CPer play
92· A-Consistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
55· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.047
Defensive EPA/play
-0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.184
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#11
market 69 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model & recruiting agree
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense33th
Offensive EPA/play67th
Defensive EPA/play55th
Offensive success rate89th
Explosiveness63th
Defensive havoc30th
Points per drive63th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive EPA3652Marshall2021OA +0.091 / +0.049similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3313Tulane2019OA +0.046 / +0.029similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3244Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3235Memphis2026OA +0.102 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA315
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Campbell | 41-24 | W | -35.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 2 | @ New Mexico State | 30-24 | W | -20.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 3 | vs UTEP | 28-10 | W | -23.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 4 | vs East Carolina | 35-24 | W | -6.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 7 | vs Florida International | 31-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Kennesaw State | 24-27 | L | -2.5 | L | 63 | U |
| 10 | vs Jacksonville State | 21-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Middle Tennessee | 37-17 | W | -11.0 | W | 54 | P |
| 12 | @ Massachusetts | 35-34 | W | -14.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 13 | vs Western Kentucky | 38-21 | W | -3.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Sam Houston | 18-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | vs Buffalo | 7-26 | L | +2.5 | L | 51 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-8
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.055 | 69th | +0.003 | 45th |
| Red Zone | +0.129 | 75th | -0.180 | 85th |
| Third Down | +0.045 | 38th | +0.060 | 56th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.047 | 71th | -0.009 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.003 | 46th | -0.028 | 55th |
| Second Half | +0.115 | 87th | +0.034 | 35th |
| Early Downs | +0.119 | 93th | -0.042 | 55th |
| Passing Downs | +0.002 | 42th | +0.061 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | +0.079 | 81th | -0.030 | 57th |
| Goal to Go | +0.240 | 84th | -0.078 | 66th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.8%Rush 65.2%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
418.5
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
21.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Liberty | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 345 | 282 |
| Points / Game | 28.8 | 23.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 277 | 226 |
| Rushing | 165 | 95 |
| Passing | 90 | 100 |
| Penalty | 22 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 542 | 462 |
| Yards | 3,008 | 1,849 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 250.7 | 154.1 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 289 | 323 |
| Completions | 157 | 190 |
| Completion % | 54.3% | 58.8% |
| Yards | 2,014 | 2,356 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 126.29 | 126.38 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 831 | 785 |
| Yards | 5,022 | 4,205 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 418.5 | 350.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 9 |
| Yards | 148 | 86 |
| Average | 10.6 | 9.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 21 |
| Yards | 669 | 423 |
| Average | 19.1 | 20.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 43 | 48 |
| Yards | 1,822 | 2,105 |
| Average | 42.4 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 7 |
| Yards | 85 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 13 |
| Lost | 11 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 82 | 75 |
| Yards | 793 | 640 |
| Yards / Game | 66.1 | 53.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:38 | 29:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 157 | 163 |
| Conversions | 68 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 43.3% | 36.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 25 |
| Conversions | 12 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 56.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 35 |
| Score % | 82.4% | 76.1% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 25 |
| TD % | 64.7% | 54.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 22 |
| Made | 10 | 17 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 77.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 32 |
| Made | 41 | 31 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.