Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference6-6#37 (+7.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
55· CPer play
21· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
54· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.011
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.1%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.036
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.123
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#48
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#52
model 15 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
21th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2021OA +0.016 / +0.050similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate3412California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3243Hawai'i2020OA -0.004 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3234Washington State2022OA -0.044 / +0.068similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3205Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate319

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Iowa State21-24L-3.0L52U
1vs North Dakota38-35W-27.5L55.5O
2vs Army21-24L-17.0L48U
3@ Arizona17-23L----
5vs UCF34-20W-5.5W48.5O
6@ Baylor34-35L+5.5W60.5O
7vs TCU41-28W-3.5W44.5O
9@ Kansas42-17W+3.5W56O
10vs Texas Tech20-43L+9.0L52.5O
12@ Oklahoma State14-6W-19.5L50.5U
13@ Utah47-51L+9.5W58.5O
14vs Colorado24-14W-17.0L50.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off24thRush Off76thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off39thPass Def47thRush Def61thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01053th-0.02756th
Red Zone+0.24895th-0.04057th
Third Down+0.02739th+0.16325th
No Garbage Time+0.01156th-0.03456th
First Half-0.00444th-0.04260th
Second Half+0.02364th-0.01147th
Early Downs+0.03067th-0.10282th
Passing Downs-0.10924th-0.00947th
Standard Downs+0.07976th-0.03761th
Goal to Go+0.17575th+0.04942th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
370.1
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points353320
Points / Game29.426.7
First Downs
Total207249
Rushing95119
Passing101110
Penalty1120
Rushing
Attempts404484
Yards2,0561,965
Yards / Carry5.14.1
Yards / Game171.3163.8
Touchdowns2323
Passing
Attempts343391
Completions204222
Completion %59.5%56.8%
Yards2,3852,669
Yards / Attempt7.06.8
Touchdowns1814
Interceptions713
Passer Rating131.12119.28
Total Offense
Plays747875
Yards4,4414,634
Yards / Play5.95.3
Yards / Game370.1386.2
Punt Returns
Returns1516
Yards7079
Average4.74.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2723
Yards678502
Average25.121.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4840
Yards2,0411,690
Average42.542.3
Interception Returns
Returns137
Yards8790
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1516
Lost813
Penalties
Penalties4953
Yards459397
Yards / Game38.333.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0230:59
Third Downs
Attempts155180
Conversions5871
Conversion %37.4%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3236
Conversions1818
Conversion %56.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3745
Scores (TD + FG)3436
Score %91.9%80.0%
Touchdowns2427
TD %64.9%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1521
Made1315
Pct86.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4238
Made4237
Pct100.0%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →