Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
BYU

BYU

CougarsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#7 (+10.63)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
85· BRating
86· BPer play
97· A+Consistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
99· A+Per play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.293
Defensive EPA/play
-0.928
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.8%
Def Success Rate
35.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+1.221
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.26
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 19 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where BYU ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
70th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3462Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3163Cincinnati2021OA +0.017 / +0.150similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3074Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3065App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, passing offense298

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Utah Tech63-7W-50.5W61.5O
2vs Arizona------
3@ Colorado State------
5@ TCU------
6vs Iowa State------
7vs Notre Dame------
8@ UCF------
9vs Arizona State------
10@ Utah------
11vs Baylor------
12@ Kansas------
13vs Cincinnati------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off80thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off69thPass Def50thRush Def82thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19576th-0.21673th
Red Zone+0.42280th-0.35467th
Third Down+0.38769th-0.09850th
No Garbage Time+0.24880th-0.832100th
First Half+0.24877th-0.832100th
Second Half+0.09958th+0.24615th
Early Downs+0.14174th-0.48093th
Passing Downs+0.34472th-0.05150th
Standard Downs+0.17080th-0.34082th
Goal to Go+0.17037th+1.02017th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.4%Rush 67.6%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
+4.0
Explosive/G
7.0
Yards/Game
521.0
Pts/Drive
5.83
3rd Down%
81.8%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — BYU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBYUOpponents
Scoring
Points637
Points / Game63.07.0
First Downs
Total2911
Rushing193
Passing107
Penalty01
Rushing
Attempts4625
Yards30849
Yards / Carry6.72.0
Yards / Game308.049.0
Touchdowns51
Passing
Attempts2231
Completions1715
Completion %77.3%48.4%
Yards213135
Yards / Attempt9.74.4
Touchdowns30
Interceptions03
Passer Rating203.6065.61
Total Offense
Plays6856
Yards521184
Yards / Play7.73.3
Yards / Game521.0184.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards730
Average36.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns20
Yards1100
Average55.0—
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts16
Yards54255
Average54.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns30
Yards180
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties52
Yards4615
Yards / Game46.015.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:3326:27
Third Downs
Attempts1113
Conversions95
Conversion %81.8%38.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts01
Conversions01
Conversion %—100.0%
Red Zone
Trips62
Scores (TD + FG)61
Score %100.0%50.0%
Touchdowns61
TD %100.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made00
Pct0.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts91
Made91
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →