Fourth Down Data
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UK

Kentucky

WildcatsBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#79 (-0.27)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
77· BPer play
93· AConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
35· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.080
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.234
Defensive EPA/play
+0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
62.3%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.218
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.30
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
35th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, run defense3562Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3533Michigan2020OA +0.019 / -0.036similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense3514Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3465Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense345

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Youngstown State45-13W----
2vs Alabama------
3@ Texas A&M------
4vs South Alabama------
5@ South Carolina------
6vs LSU------
7@ Oklahoma------
8vs Vanderbilt------
10@ Tennessee------
11vs Florida------
12@ Missouri------
13vs Louisville------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-0
-
O/U Record
0-0
-
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off75thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off51thPass Def33thRush Def16thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22784th+0.10918th
Red Zone+0.29869th+0.8648th
Third Down+0.10751th+0.37821th
No Garbage Time+0.23478th+0.01636th
First Half+0.29185th+0.07027th
Second Half+0.16568th+0.16025th
Early Downs+0.22084th-0.10051th
Passing Downs+0.61193th+0.09033th
Standard Downs+0.14275th+0.12416th
Goal to Go+0.54070th+3.4130th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
506.0
Pts/Drive
4.38
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
12.5%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points4513
Points / Game45.013.0
First Downs
Total2420
Rushing106
Passing1313
Penalty11
Rushing
Attempts3428
Yards20559
Yards / Carry6.02.1
Yards / Game205.059.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts2738
Completions1824
Completion %66.7%63.2%
Yards301246
Yards / Attempt11.16.5
Touchdowns41
Interceptions00
Passer Rating209.20126.22
Total Offense
Plays6166
Yards506305
Yards / Play8.34.6
Yards / Game506.0305.0
Punt Returns
Returns41
Yards291
Average7.31.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards190
Average19.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts25
Yards84224
Average42.044.8
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles12
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties64
Yards7028
Yards / Game70.028.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5230:08
Third Downs
Attempts815
Conversions38
Conversion %37.5%53.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts12
Conversions10
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips52
Scores (TD + FG)52
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns42
TD %80.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts62
Made61
Pct100.0%50.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →