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ILL
Illinois
Fighting IlliniBalancedBig Ten Conference9-4#30 (+9.90)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
78· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
37· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.115
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.135
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#37
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
model 25 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense84th
Opp-adjusted defense61th
Offensive EPA/play79th
Defensive EPA/play37th
Offensive success rate87th
Explosiveness85th
Defensive havoc49th
Points per drive87th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ohio2022OA +0.047 / -0.102similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA4742Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3833Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate3774West Virginia2018OA +0.080 / -0.015similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3655NC State2018OA +0.065 / -0.007similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA352
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Illinois | 52-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Duke | 45-19 | W | -2.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 3 | vs Western Michigan | 38-0 | W | -27.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Indiana | 10-63 | L | +7.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | vs USC | 34-32 | W | +7.0 | W | 61 | O |
| 6 | @ Purdue | 43-27 | W | -8.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Ohio State | 16-34 | L | +14.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Washington | 25-42 | L | +7.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Rutgers | 35-13 | W | -13.0 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Maryland | 24-6 | W | -13.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Wisconsin | 10-27 | L | -8.5 | L | 42 | U |
| 14 | vs Northwestern | 20-13 | W | -7.0 | P | 44.5 | U |
| 19 | vs Tennessee | 30-28 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4-1
66.7%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-1
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLPW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.068 | 75th | +0.019 | 36th |
| Red Zone | -0.066 | 37th | +0.064 | 35th |
| Third Down | +0.067 | 47th | +0.182 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.083 | 79th | +0.014 | 37th |
| First Half | +0.108 | 80th | +0.018 | 39th |
| Second Half | +0.026 | 65th | +0.020 | 40th |
| Early Downs | +0.035 | 72th | -0.065 | 72th |
| Passing Downs | +0.044 | 63th | +0.141 | 10th |
| Standard Downs | +0.079 | 77th | -0.037 | 60th |
| Goal to Go | -0.043 | 47th | -0.082 | 60th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
373.8
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
12.7%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Illinois | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 382 | 307 |
| Points / Game | 29.4 | 23.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 276 | 261 |
| Rushing | 110 | 91 |
| Passing | 135 | 155 |
| Penalty | 31 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 458 | 417 |
| Yards | 1,795 | 1,645 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 138.1 | 126.5 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 372 | 429 |
| Completions | 251 | 273 |
| Completion % | 67.5% | 63.6% |
| Yards | 3,065 | 2,839 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.2 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 153.86 | 131.04 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 830 | 846 |
| Yards | 4,860 | 4,484 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 373.8 | 344.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 9 |
| Yards | 213 | 38 |
| Average | 16.4 | 4.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 13 |
| Yards | 245 | 362 |
| Average | 22.3 | 27.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 37 | 45 |
| Yards | 1,580 | 1,928 |
| Average | 42.7 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 6 |
| Yards | 32 | 49 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 17 |
| Lost | 5 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 60 | 75 |
| Yards | 513 | 672 |
| Yards / Game | 39.5 | 51.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:55 | 29:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 151 | 169 |
| Conversions | 64 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 42.4% | 45.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 29 |
| Conversions | 13 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 56.5% | 55.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 40 |
| Score % | 85.7% | 87.0% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 30 |
| TD % | 58.9% | 65.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 16 |
| Made | 20 | 14 |
| Pct | 87.0% | 87.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 44 | 35 |
| Made | 44 | 35 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.