Fourth Down Data
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WVU

West Virginia

MountaineersBalanced
Big 12 Conference8-4#18 (+7.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
88· BPer play
88· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
61· CRating
27· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.080
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.128
Defensive EPA/play
+0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.073
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.29
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#42
model 24 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where West Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
83th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, run defense, passing offense3962Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3893Ohio2022OA +0.047 / -0.102similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, passing offense3854Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3795Texas2026OA +0.032 / -0.028similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense373

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tennessee40-14W+3.0L67.5U
2vs Youngstown State52-17W-33.5W63.5O
4vs Kansas State35-6W-15.5W60.5U
5@ Texas Tech42-34W-3.5W73O
6vs Kansas38-22W-27.0L61U
7@ Iowa State14-30L-4.0L54.5U
9vs Baylor58-14W-14.5W67O
10@ Texas42-41W-1.0P58O
11vs TCU47-10W-13.0W55.5O
12@ Oklahoma State41-45L-6.0L74O
13vs Oklahoma56-59L+3.0P86O
18@ Syracuse18-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-4-2
55.6%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
7-4
63.6%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WPWLP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off84thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off73thPass Def17thRush Def33thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11287th+0.06022th
Red Zone+0.04357th+0.08333th
Third Down+0.16273th+0.13230th
No Garbage Time+0.12889th+0.05328th
First Half+0.12689th-0.05665th
Second Half+0.09282th+0.1644th
Early Downs+0.08488th+0.02734th
Passing Downs+0.16886th+0.12917th
Standard Downs+0.08584th+0.02633th
Goal to Go+0.04846th-0.02868th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.1%Rush 48.9%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
512.3
Pts/Drive
3.10
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
14.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — West Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWest VirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points483326
Points / Game40.327.2
First Downs
Total290262
Rushing98112
Passing173131
Penalty1919
Rushing
Attempts425450
Yards1,9311,772
Yards / Carry4.53.9
Yards / Game160.9147.7
Touchdowns2217
Passing
Attempts445389
Completions291247
Completion %65.4%63.5%
Yards4,2163,108
Yards / Attempt9.58.0
Touchdowns3822
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating168.66141.56
Total Offense
Plays870839
Yards6,1474,880
Yards / Play7.15.8
Yards / Game512.3406.7
Punt Returns
Returns119
Yards6269
Average5.67.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2144
Yards372850
Average17.719.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4361
Yards1,7402,482
Average40.540.7
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards189124
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1525
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties8582
Yards800721
Yards / Game66.760.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5131:09
Third Downs
Attempts156158
Conversions6857
Conversion %43.6%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1619
Conversions912
Conversion %56.3%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips5345
Scores (TD + FG)4339
Score %81.1%86.7%
Touchdowns3528
TD %66.0%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2015
Made1612
Pct80.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6039
Made5938
Pct98.3%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →