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DUKE
Duke
Blue DevilsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-5#38 (+7.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
72· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
92· A-Per play
72· BConsistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
11· FPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.147
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.119
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.139
Defensive EPA/play
+0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.01
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#53
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 20 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense91th
Opp-adjusted defense11th
Offensive EPA/play93th
Defensive EPA/play11th
Offensive success rate73th
Explosiveness80th
Defensive havoc54th
Points per drive90th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UCF2020OA +0.077 / -0.036similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate4522Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA4363SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4354Syracuse2024OA +0.063 / -0.030similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4125West Virginia2018OA +0.080 / -0.015similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, takeaway rate389
2025 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Elon | 45-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Illinois | 19-45 | L | +2.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 3 | @ Tulane | 27-34 | L | +1.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | vs NC State | 45-33 | W | -3.3 | W | 68.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Syracuse | 38-3 | W | -4.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 6 | @ California | 45-21 | W | -3.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 8 | vs Georgia Tech | 18-27 | L | -2.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 10 | @ Clemson | 46-45 | W | +3.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 11 | @ UConn | 34-37 | L | -3.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Virginia | 17-34 | L | +2.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 13 | @ North Carolina | 32-25 | W | -9.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Wake Forest | 49-32 | W | -7.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 15 | @ Virginia | 27-20 | W | +4.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 19 | vs Arizona State | 42-39 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
10-4
71.4%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.139 | 92th | +0.093 | 11th |
| Red Zone | +0.139 | 78th | +0.203 | 9th |
| Third Down | +0.278 | 83th | +0.495 | 1th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.136 | 92th | +0.124 | 7th |
| First Half | +0.147 | 90th | +0.091 | 14th |
| Second Half | +0.131 | 85th | +0.095 | 14th |
| Early Downs | +0.022 | 64th | +0.027 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | +0.214 | 92th | +0.154 | 9th |
| Standard Downs | +0.103 | 87th | +0.061 | 23th |
| Goal to Go | -0.188 | 20th | -0.024 | 50th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.7%Rush 47.3%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
423.5
Pts/Drive
3.01
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
16.8%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 14 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Duke | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 484 | 412 |
| Points / Game | 34.6 | 29.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 316 | 314 |
| Rushing | 106 | 111 |
| Passing | 176 | 172 |
| Penalty | 34 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 455 | 482 |
| Yards | 1,934 | 2,064 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 138.1 | 147.4 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 29 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 506 | 463 |
| Completions | 336 | 311 |
| Completion % | 66.4% | 67.2% |
| Yards | 3,995 | 3,875 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 152.53 | 146.39 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 961 | 945 |
| Yards | 5,929 | 5,939 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 423.5 | 424.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 12 |
| Yards | 116 | 45 |
| Average | 11.6 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 19 |
| Yards | 652 | 373 |
| Average | 29.6 | 19.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 40 |
| Yards | 1,976 | 1,787 |
| Average | 43.9 | 44.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 6 |
| Yards | 167 | 16 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 19 |
| Lost | 8 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 90 | 91 |
| Yards | 878 | 857 |
| Yards / Game | 62.7 | 61.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:42 | 30:14 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 182 | 183 |
| Conversions | 71 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 39.0% | 45.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 29 |
| Conversions | 32 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 76.2% | 51.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 66 | 56 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 55 | 51 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 91.1% |
| Touchdowns | 46 | 40 |
| TD % | 69.7% | 71.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 21 |
| Made | 14 | 18 |
| Pct | 73.7% | 85.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 56 | 45 |
| Made | 56 | 44 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 6 |
| Made | 4 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.