Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#16 (+8.93)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
82· BRating
72· BPer play
63· CConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
88· BRating
85· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.214
Defensive EPA/play
-0.460
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.6%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.674
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3212Mississippi State2026OA +0.028 / +0.032similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3183Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, rushing offense3184Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate3165Liberty2020OA +0.052 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, passing offense308

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14W----
2@ Kansas------
3vs Troy------
4@ Mississippi State------
5vs Florida------
6vs Texas A&M------
7@ Ole Miss------
9@ Arkansas------
10vs Texas------
11@ Georgia------
12vs Kentucky------
13vs Oklahoma------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-0
-
O/U Record
0-0
-
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off59thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off91thPass Def20thRush Def47thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19677th+0.09820th
Red Zone+0.34375th+1.3404th
Third Down+0.87791th-0.43378th
No Garbage Time+0.24280th-0.35682th
First Half+0.24276th-0.35681th
Second Half+0.13164th+0.5044th
Early Downs+0.03350th+0.07320th
Passing Downs+0.55690th+0.32620th
Standard Downs+0.08059th-0.09047th
Goal to Go+0.39559th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.3%Rush 57.7%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
562.0
Pts/Drive
5.60
3rd Down%
60.0%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points5414
Points / Game54.014.0
First Downs
Total3313
Rushing156
Passing166
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts4529
Yards20589
Yards / Carry4.63.1
Yards / Game205.089.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts3324
Completions2611
Completion %78.8%45.8%
Yards357109
Yards / Attempt10.84.5
Touchdowns41
Interceptions00
Passer Rating209.6697.73
Total Offense
Plays7853
Yards562198
Yards / Play7.23.7
Yards / Game562.0198.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards340
Average17.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards87313
Average43.539.1
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles12
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties58
Yards3571
Yards / Game35.071.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5826:02
Third Downs
Attempts1013
Conversions63
Conversion %60.0%23.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)51
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns41
TD %80.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts72
Made72
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →