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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference11-3#17 (+15.81)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
96· APer play
94· AConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
64· CRating
49· CPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.173
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.183
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.9%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.181
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.05

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate4042South Alabama2024OA +0.039 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3773Georgia2018OA +0.139 / +0.111similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3764Tulane2022OA +0.068 / +0.036similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3755North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate372

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Mississippi State28-38L-15.5L55.5U
2vs Liberty35-14W-14.0W65.5U
3vs Texas Southern77-6W-47.0W75O
4@ Ohio45-25W+3.0W68.5O
5@ Georgia Southern37-24W-3.0W56O
7vs App State7-17L-2.5L69.5U
8@ Arkansas State37-20W-6.0W69U
10vs Texas State31-3W-23.5W55.5U
11@ Coastal Carolina48-7W-14.0W58U
12@ South Alabama37-27W-27.5L52.5O
13vs Troy53-3W-13.0W74.5U
14vs UL Monroe31-30W-19.5L71U
15@ App State38-45L+6.0L57.5O
19@ Miami (OH)27-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off100thRush Off83thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off93thPass Def72thRush Def36thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18198th-0.00452th
Red Zone+0.13577th-0.12973th
Third Down+0.30393th-0.09173th
No Garbage Time+0.18697th+0.01346th
First Half+0.19495th+0.03037th
Second Half+0.16699th-0.03965th
Early Downs+0.10487th+0.06416th
Passing Downs+0.400100th-0.06872th
Standard Downs+0.09483th+0.02636th
Goal to Go-0.02450th-0.35587th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
494.1
Pts/Drive
3.05
3rd Down%
47.6%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points531276
Points / Game37.919.7
First Downs
Total351296
Rushing179147
Passing153120
Penalty1929
Rushing
Attempts574545
Yards3,6042,437
Yards / Carry6.34.5
Yards / Game257.4174.1
Touchdowns4221
Passing
Attempts413410
Completions268235
Completion %64.9%57.3%
Yards3,3142,768
Yards / Attempt8.06.8
Touchdowns2711
Interceptions410
Passer Rating151.93118.00
Total Offense
Plays987955
Yards6,9185,205
Yards / Play7.05.5
Yards / Game494.1371.8
Punt Returns
Returns2912
Yards19191
Average6.67.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4040
Yards932702
Average23.317.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4567
Yards1,9912,769
Average44.241.3
Interception Returns
Returns104
Yards10216
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1616
Lost109
Penalties
Penalties9870
Yards817566
Yards / Game58.440.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2429:57
Third Downs
Attempts168188
Conversions8068
Conversion %47.6%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1727
Conversions911
Conversion %52.9%40.7%
Red Zone
Trips7043
Scores (TD + FG)6131
Score %87.1%72.1%
Touchdowns4822
TD %68.6%51.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2320
Made1616
Pct69.6%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6929
Made6728
Pct97.1%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →