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TULN
Tulane
Green WaveRun-HeavyAmerican Conference12-2#9 (+10.11)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
93· AOverall
Offense
84· BRating
84· BPer play
67· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
43· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.068
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.099
Defensive EPA/play
-0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.104
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.196
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.56
own return game
Return Defense
+1.17
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#46
model 37 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 66 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense75th
Opp-adjusted defense64th
Offensive EPA/play84th
Defensive EPA/play44th
Offensive success rate69th
Explosiveness85th
Defensive havoc21th
Points per drive90th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisiana2019OA +0.173 / -0.015similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3752Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, run defense3713TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3684Florida International2018OA +0.106 / -0.062similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3485LSU2022OA +0.112 / +0.084similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate343
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Massachusetts | 42-10 | W | -28.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 2 | vs Alcorn State | 52-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Kansas State | 17-10 | W | +14.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Southern Miss | 24-27 | L | +2.5 | W | 55 | U |
| 5 | @ Houston | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs East Carolina | 24-9 | W | -3.0 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 7 | @ South Florida | 45-31 | W | -12.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 8 | vs Memphis | 38-28 | W | -7.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Tulsa | 27-13 | W | -7.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 11 | vs UCF | 31-38 | L | -3.0 | W | 65 | O |
| 12 | vs SMU | 59-24 | W | +2.0 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Cincinnati | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs UCF | 45-28 | W | -4.0 | W | 57 | O |
| 18 | @ USC | 46-45 | W | +2.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
11-2
84.6%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.093 | 84th | +0.005 | 40th |
| Red Zone | +0.125 | 79th | +0.217 | 11th |
| Third Down | +0.125 | 61th | +0.018 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.102 | 85th | -0.017 | 47th |
| First Half | +0.092 | 76th | -0.014 | 48th |
| Second Half | +0.094 | 84th | +0.023 | 31th |
| Early Downs | +0.112 | 90th | +0.039 | 19th |
| Passing Downs | +0.148 | 84th | -0.041 | 61th |
| Standard Downs | +0.067 | 79th | +0.029 | 24th |
| Goal to Go | +0.121 | 73th | -0.076 | 55th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.5%Rush 59.5%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
441.4
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
38.4%
3&Out%
17.1%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tulane | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 504 | 311 |
| Points / Game | 36.0 | 22.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 303 | 275 |
| Rushing | 146 | 124 |
| Passing | 137 | 138 |
| Penalty | 20 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 557 | 546 |
| Yards | 2,867 | 2,132 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 204.8 | 152.3 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 379 | 463 |
| Completions | 241 | 277 |
| Completion % | 63.6% | 59.8% |
| Yards | 3,313 | 2,913 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.7 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 160.50 | 123.89 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 936 | 1,009 |
| Yards | 6,180 | 5,045 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 441.4 | 360.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 9 |
| Yards | 227 | 9 |
| Average | 9.9 | 1.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 31 |
| Yards | 754 | 494 |
| Average | 22.2 | 15.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 48 | 68 |
| Yards | 1,950 | 2,832 |
| Average | 40.6 | 41.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 5 |
| Yards | 53 | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 15 |
| Lost | 11 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 56 | 74 |
| Yards | 480 | 609 |
| Yards / Game | 34.3 | 43.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:39 | 30:18 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 222 |
| Conversions | 66 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 38.4% | 37.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 43 |
| Conversions | 16 | 25 |
| Conversion % | 59.3% | 58.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 68 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 59 | 35 |
| Score % | 86.8% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 48 | 25 |
| TD % | 70.6% | 61.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 19 |
| Made | 14 | 13 |
| Pct | 77.8% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 64 | 39 |
| Made | 64 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.