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TEX
Texas
LonghornsBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-3#22 (+12.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
84· BOverall
Offense
55· CRating
48· CPer play
34· DConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
78· BPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.134
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.209
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.39
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#23
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 19 spots higher
76 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense43th
Opp-adjusted defense93th
Offensive EPA/play49th
Defensive EPA/play79th
Offensive success rate33th
Explosiveness35th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive61th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3632Washington2026OA -0.025 / +0.023similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3543Fresno State2017OA -0.037 / +0.068similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3534Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3525James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA351
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Ohio State | 7-14 | L | +1.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 2 | vs San José State | 38-7 | W | -37.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs UTEP | 27-10 | W | -30.5 | L | 40 | U |
| 4 | vs Sam Houston | 55-0 | W | -39.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 6 | @ Florida | 21-29 | L | +11.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Oklahoma | 23-6 | W | -3.5 | W | 30.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Kentucky | 16-13 | W | -12.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 9 | @ Mississippi State | 45-38 | W | -2.3 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Vanderbilt | 34-31 | W | -3.0 | P | 47 | O |
| 12 | @ Georgia | 10-35 | L | +4.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Arkansas | 52-37 | W | -9.5 | W | 76.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Texas A&M | 27-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | vs Michigan | 41-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
PLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.005 | 46th | -0.069 | 68th |
| Red Zone | -0.093 | 30th | +0.197 | 10th |
| Third Down | +0.079 | 50th | -0.026 | 68th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.005 | 48th | -0.092 | 79th |
| First Half | -0.096 | 21th | -0.054 | 65th |
| Second Half | +0.085 | 81th | -0.085 | 76th |
| Early Downs | -0.025 | 41th | -0.060 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | +0.049 | 64th | -0.079 | 69th |
| Standard Downs | -0.035 | 32th | -0.063 | 71th |
| Goal to Go | +0.069 | 61th | +0.566 | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
388.5
Pts/Drive
2.39
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
20.4%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 396 | 264 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 20.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 247 | 249 |
| Rushing | 97 | 83 |
| Passing | 132 | 141 |
| Penalty | 18 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 430 |
| Yards | 1,791 | 1,351 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Yards / Game | 137.8 | 103.9 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 421 | 465 |
| Completions | 258 | 291 |
| Completion % | 61.3% | 62.6% |
| Yards | 3,259 | 3,054 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 144.93 | 123.64 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 848 | 895 |
| Yards | 5,050 | 4,405 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 388.5 | 338.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 18 |
| Yards | 484 | 155 |
| Average | 22.0 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 24 |
| Yards | 345 | 492 |
| Average | 15.7 | 20.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,627 | 2,780 |
| Average | 43.8 | 43.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 7 |
| Yards | 51 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 17 |
| Lost | 2 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 108 | 75 |
| Yards | 906 | 561 |
| Yards / Game | 69.7 | 43.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:30 | 31:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 191 |
| Conversions | 69 | 64 |
| Conversion % | 39.2% | 33.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 31 |
| Conversions | 9 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 45.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 30 |
| Score % | 85.1% | 81.1% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 23 |
| TD % | 63.8% | 62.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 22 |
| Made | 20 | 15 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 29 |
| Made | 48 | 29 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.