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JMU

James Madison

DukesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference9-4#38 (+3.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
49· CRating
52· CPer play
56· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
90· A-Per play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.137
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
39.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.143
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.032
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#12
market 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where James Madison ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
91th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4372Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA4293Texas Tech2025OA +0.031 / +0.361similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate4284Maryland2026OA -0.021 / +0.097similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate4035Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense402

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Charlotte30-7W-9.0W48U
2vs Gardner-Webb13-6W-37.5L51U
4@ North Carolina70-50W+10.5W48.5O
5vs Ball State63-7W-20.5W56.5O
6@ UL Monroe19-21L-16.0L48.5U
7vs Coastal Carolina39-7W----
8@ Georgia Southern14-28L-9.5L58.5U
9vs Southern Miss32-15W-24.5L54.5U
11vs Georgia State38-7W-16.5W54U
12@ Old Dominion35-32W-3.0P51.5O
13@ App State20-34L-7.0L60.5U
14vs Marshall33-35L-3.5L52.5O
17vs Western Kentucky27-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WPLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off37thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off79thPass Def75thRush Def92thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00940th-0.11789th
Red Zone-0.04938th+0.02845th
Third Down+0.23879th-0.06785th
No Garbage Time-0.00046th-0.13793th
First Half-0.02339th-0.08272th
Second Half+0.00643th-0.15496th
Early Downs-0.03438th-0.18798th
Passing Downs+0.03151th-0.09875th
Standard Downs-0.02937th-0.13092th
Goal to Go-0.01544th-0.17780th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
+1.5
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
407.6
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
15.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — James Madison vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJames MadisonOpponents
Scoring
Points433266
Points / Game33.320.5
First Downs
Total269227
Rushing13086
Passing122122
Penalty1719
Rushing
Attempts520430
Yards2,4901,500
Yards / Carry4.83.5
Yards / Game191.5115.4
Touchdowns2013
Passing
Attempts382429
Completions232234
Completion %60.7%54.5%
Yards2,8092,684
Yards / Attempt7.46.3
Touchdowns2816
Interceptions417
Passer Rating144.60111.48
Total Offense
Plays902859
Yards5,2994,184
Yards / Play5.94.9
Yards / Game407.6321.8
Punt Returns
Returns2218
Yards187140
Average8.57.8
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns2123
Yards518522
Average24.722.7
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5367
Yards2,1192,668
Average40.039.8
Interception Returns
Returns174
Yards26534
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1119
Lost512
Penalties
Penalties9168
Yards708587
Yards / Game54.545.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4828:12
Third Downs
Attempts185186
Conversions7660
Conversion %41.1%32.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2933
Conversions1117
Conversion %37.9%51.5%
Red Zone
Trips5034
Scores (TD + FG)4327
Score %86.0%79.4%
Touchdowns3221
TD %64.0%61.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2313
Made1812
Pct78.3%92.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4827
Made4526
Pct93.8%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts66
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →