Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference12-2#3 (+29.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
88· BRating
38· DPer play
30· DConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.361
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.033
Defensive EPA/play
-0.375
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
36.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.342
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.141
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.86
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#5
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#30
model 27 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate4262Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3633Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3594West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3475SMU2024OA +0.018 / +0.063similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate347

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff67-7W----
2vs Kent State62-14W-48.5L59.5O
3vs Oregon State45-14W-23.5W61.5U
4@ Utah34-10W+3.5W57.5U
6@ Houston35-11W-13.5W51.5U
7vs Kansas42-17W-14.0W58.5O
8@ Arizona State22-26L-1.5L40O
9vs Oklahoma State42-0W-42.0P55.5U
10@ Kansas State43-20W-9.0W52.5O
11vs BYU29-7W-11.0W51.5U
12vs UCF48-9W-32.5W53.5O
14@ West Virginia49-0W-23.5W52.5U
15vs BYU34-7W-12.5W49.5U
19vs Oregon0-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS8-2
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off48thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off82thPass Def96thRush Def100thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01244th-0.292100th
Red Zone-0.2288th+0.06534th
Third Down+0.27782th-0.03570th
No Garbage Time-0.02539th-0.379100th
First Half-0.01243th-0.395100th
Second Half-0.01350th-0.18096th
Early Downs-0.06027th-0.315100th
Passing Downs-0.04142th-0.25296th
Standard Downs+0.00348th-0.320100th
Goal to Go-0.25212th+0.3814th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
18.0
Havoc Rate
26.7%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
461.4
Pts/Drive
2.81
3rd Down%
49.5%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points552165
Points / Game39.411.8
First Downs
Total318196
Rushing14671
Passing158103
Penalty1422
Rushing
Attempts552434
Yards2,560954
Yards / Carry4.62.2
Yards / Game182.968.1
Touchdowns308
Passing
Attempts486483
Completions319286
Completion %65.6%59.2%
Yards3,8992,662
Yards / Attempt8.05.5
Touchdowns3311
Interceptions1017
Passer Rating151.32105.99
Total Offense
Plays1,038917
Yards6,4593,616
Yards / Play6.23.9
Yards / Game461.4258.3
Punt Returns
Returns2710
Yards24089
Average8.98.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1816
Yards479264
Average26.616.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4588
Yards1,9453,579
Average43.240.7
Interception Returns
Returns1710
Yards21428
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1735
Lost815
Penalties
Penalties9466
Yards779512
Yards / Game55.636.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4029:01
Third Downs
Attempts220214
Conversions10964
Conversion %49.5%29.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2242
Conversions1114
Conversion %50.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips7428
Scores (TD + FG)6422
Score %86.5%78.6%
Touchdowns4115
TD %55.4%53.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3415
Made2810
Pct82.4%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6117
Made5817
Pct95.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →