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UVA
Virginia
CavaliersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference11-3#32 (+9.01)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
76· BOverall
Offense
56· CRating
57· CPer play
43· CConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
79· BPer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.007
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.098
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
40.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.115
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 16 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#49
model 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
model 39 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play57th
Defensive EPA/play80th
Offensive success rate38th
Explosiveness22th
Defensive havoc84th
Points per drive63th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate4272Missouri2024OA +0.015 / +0.040similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3863Syracuse2018OA +0.008 / +0.062similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, run defense3824South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3695UNLV2024OA +0.014 / +0.065similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, passing offense368
2025 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Coastal Carolina | 48-7 | W | -13.5 | W | 55 | P |
| 2 | @ NC State | 31-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | vs William & Mary | 55-16 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Stanford | 48-20 | W | +7.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Florida State | 46-38 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ Louisville | 30-27 | W | +3.5 | W | 57.25 | U |
| 8 | vs Washington State | 22-20 | W | -16.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 9 | @ North Carolina | 17-16 | W | -10.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 10 | @ California | 31-21 | W | -10.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Wake Forest | 9-16 | L | -6.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 12 | @ Duke | 34-17 | W | -2.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 14 | vs Virginia Tech | 27-7 | W | -8.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 15 | vs Duke | 20-27 | L | -4.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Missouri | 13-7 | W | +4.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-7-1
41.7%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.008 | 44th | -0.078 | 73th |
| Red Zone | -0.173 | 16th | +0.071 | 32th |
| Third Down | +0.377 | 93th | -0.291 | 99th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.021 | 59th | -0.095 | 80th |
| First Half | +0.082 | 76th | -0.052 | 64th |
| Second Half | -0.100 | 13th | -0.105 | 83th |
| Early Downs | -0.117 | 10th | -0.053 | 65th |
| Passing Downs | +0.023 | 57th | -0.154 | 87th |
| Standard Downs | -0.025 | 37th | -0.036 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.060 | 42th | -0.100 | 61th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.3%Rush 52.7%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
417.9
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
49.8%
3&Out%
16.2%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 14 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Virginia | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 431 | 274 |
| Points / Game | 30.8 | 19.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 303 | 220 |
| Rushing | 134 | 89 |
| Passing | 151 | 116 |
| Penalty | 18 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 548 | 465 |
| Yards | 2,502 | 1,595 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 178.7 | 113.9 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 492 | 412 |
| Completions | 315 | 245 |
| Completion % | 64.0% | 59.5% |
| Yards | 3,348 | 2,738 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 129.19 | 120.51 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,040 | 877 |
| Yards | 5,850 | 4,333 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 417.9 | 309.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 24 |
| Yards | 289 | 320 |
| Average | 9.0 | 13.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 25 |
| Yards | 324 | 386 |
| Average | 32.4 | 15.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 77 |
| Yards | 2,294 | 3,164 |
| Average | 46.8 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 10 |
| Yards | 132 | 80 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 17 |
| Lost | 4 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 67 |
| Yards | 633 | 598 |
| Yards / Game | 45.2 | 42.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:16 | 27:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 233 | 193 |
| Conversions | 116 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 49.8% | 28.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 32 |
| Conversions | 15 | 20 |
| Conversion % | 46.9% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 64 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 53 | 31 |
| Score % | 82.8% | 83.8% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 25 |
| TD % | 56.3% | 67.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 18 |
| Made | 24 | 12 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 32 |
| Made | 49 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.