Fourth Down Data
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UNLV

UNLV

RebelsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference11-3#13 (+8.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
65· CRating
72· BPer play
38· DConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
91· A-Per play
99· A+Consistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
-0.139
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
42.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.194
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#22
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 67 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3682Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3403Arkansas State2018OA +0.033 / +0.059similar: rushing offense, passing offense, takeaway rate3384James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3315UCF2019OA +0.101 / +0.085similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense326

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Houston27-7W+2.5W54.5U
2vs Utah Tech72-14W+9.0W58U
3@ Kansas23-20W----
5vs Fresno State59-14W-2.0W48.5O
6vs Syracuse41-44L-19.0L65.5O
7@ Utah State50-34W----
8@ Oregon State33-25W+3.3L65.25U
9vs Boise State24-29L----
11@ Hawai'i29-27W-13.5L49.5O
12vs San Diego State41-20W-20.5W54O
13@ San José State27-16W----
14vs Nevada38-14W-17.5W55U
15@ Boise State7-21L----
17vs California24-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off83thRed Zone Off18th3rd Down Off67thPass Def99thRush Def35thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04563th-0.06777th
Red Zone-0.17018th+0.09827th
Third Down+0.17567th-0.00374th
No Garbage Time+0.03460th-0.13292th
First Half+0.07775th-0.07670th
Second Half+0.01246th-0.05875th
Early Downs+0.03573th-0.04557th
Passing Downs-0.04230th-0.24399th
Standard Downs+0.08883th+0.03535th
Goal to Go-0.3728th+0.00547th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.2%Rush 66.8%
Havoc/Game
16.9
Havoc Rate
23.5%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
416.1
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUNLVOpponents
Scoring
Points495298
Points / Game35.421.3
First Downs
Total296277
Rushing16694
Passing106156
Penalty2427
Rushing
Attempts623457
Yards3,4091,610
Yards / Carry5.53.5
Yards / Game243.5115.0
Touchdowns2917
Passing
Attempts309517
Completions178296
Completion %57.6%57.3%
Yards2,4173,302
Yards / Attempt7.86.4
Touchdowns2520
Interceptions617
Passer Rating146.13117.09
Total Offense
Plays932974
Yards5,8264,912
Yards / Play6.35.0
Yards / Game416.1350.9
Punt Returns
Returns3415
Yards40674
Average11.94.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2923
Yards580398
Average20.017.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5577
Yards2,3943,092
Average43.540.2
Interception Returns
Returns176
Yards218119
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1312
Lost36
Penalties
Penalties7890
Yards689844
Yards / Game49.260.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1229:52
Third Downs
Attempts197201
Conversions7965
Conversion %40.1%32.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2335
Conversions1621
Conversion %69.6%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips7138
Scores (TD + FG)5731
Score %80.3%81.6%
Touchdowns3623
TD %50.7%60.5%
Field Goals
Attempts3414
Made2711
Pct79.4%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5933
Made5833
Pct98.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →