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UCF
UCF
KnightsBalancedBig 12 Conference10-3#16 (+17.43)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
88· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
84· BPer play
74· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
88· BPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.101
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.124
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.232
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.03
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 48 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense85th
Opp-adjusted defense79th
Offensive EPA/play85th
Defensive EPA/play89th
Offensive success rate69th
Explosiveness68th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive93th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida State2023OA +0.078 / +0.123similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3782South Florida2017OA +0.109 / +0.094similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3683Oregon2019OA +0.082 / +0.145similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense3674Arkansas State2018OA +0.033 / +0.059similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3665Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA363
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Florida A&M | 62-0 | W | -16.0 | W | 60 | O |
| 2 | @ Florida Atlantic | 48-14 | W | -13.5 | W | 69 | U |
| 3 | vs Stanford | 45-27 | W | -9.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 4 | @ Pittsburgh | 34-35 | L | -9.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 5 | vs UConn | 56-21 | W | -42.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 6 | @ Cincinnati | 24-27 | L | -3.5 | L | 64 | U |
| 8 | vs East Carolina | 41-28 | W | -34.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Temple | 63-21 | W | -11.0 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Houston | 44-29 | W | -22.0 | L | 73.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Tulsa | 31-34 | L | -17.0 | L | 68.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Tulane | 34-31 | W | -7.0 | L | 73.5 | U |
| 14 | vs South Florida | 34-7 | W | -24.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 17 | @ Marshall | 48-25 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.079 | 75th | -0.086 | 78th |
| Red Zone | -0.145 | 25th | +0.127 | 16th |
| Third Down | +0.203 | 85th | -0.286 | 97th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.102 | 84th | -0.126 | 88th |
| First Half | +0.164 | 91th | -0.174 | 93th |
| Second Half | -0.023 | 38th | +0.018 | 42th |
| Early Downs | +0.040 | 68th | -0.078 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | +0.043 | 56th | -0.048 | 61th |
| Standard Downs | +0.097 | 85th | -0.112 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | -0.169 | 32th | +0.277 | 11th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.0%Rush 55.0%
Havoc/Game
18.3
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
540.5
Pts/Drive
3.03
3rd Down%
40.5%
3&Out%
21.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UCF | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 564 | 299 |
| Points / Game | 43.4 | 23.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 333 | 262 |
| Rushing | 154 | 111 |
| Passing | 143 | 120 |
| Penalty | 36 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 559 | 546 |
| Yards | 2,909 | 1,906 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 223.8 | 146.6 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 457 | 439 |
| Completions | 271 | 230 |
| Completion % | 59.3% | 52.4% |
| Yards | 4,117 | 2,593 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.0 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 157.47 | 108.86 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,016 | 985 |
| Yards | 7,026 | 4,499 |
| Yards / Play | 6.9 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 540.5 | 346.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 10 |
| Yards | 293 | 137 |
| Average | 10.9 | 13.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 33 |
| Yards | 302 | 743 |
| Average | 17.8 | 22.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 93 |
| Yards | 2,408 | 4,043 |
| Average | 40.8 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 239 | 190 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 111 | 102 |
| Yards | 952 | 895 |
| Yards / Game | 73.2 | 68.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:07 | 33:31 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 200 | 215 |
| Conversions | 81 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 40.5% | 29.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 25 |
| Conversions | 19 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 57.6% | 64.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 36 |
| Score % | 78.9% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 24 |
| TD % | 57.9% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Made | 15 | 16 |
| Pct | 88.2% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 72 | 31 |
| Made | 71 | 31 |
| Pct | 98.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.