Florida State Seminoles Football Analytics

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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced

Atlantic Coast Conference13-1#9 (+9.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall

Offense

76· BRating

73· BPer play

51· CConsistency

40· CBig plays

Defense

92· A-Rating

89· BPer play

89· BConsistency

Situational

53· CRed-zone O

70· BRed-zone D

48· C3rd down O

81· B3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.078

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.123

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.071

Defensive EPA/play

-0.102

lower = better

Off Success Rate

46.6%

Def Success Rate

42.8%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

23.0%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

21.6%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.174

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

-0.175

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.57

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+1.23

expected pts/game

Kicking

+1.31

own kicking game

Kick Defense

-0.11

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.09

own return game

Return Defense

-0.06

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#9

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

#6

AP 3 spots higher

Market (Vegas)

#12

model 3 higher

Recruiting Rank

#19

model 10 spots higher

29 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

83th

Opp-adjusted defense

93th

Offensive EPA/play

74th

Defensive EPA/play

90th

Offensive success rate

53th

Explosiveness

41th

Defensive havoc

99th

Points per drive

76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense391 2UCF2019OA +0.101 / +0.085similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate378 3Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: run defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate367 4SMU2023OA +0.019 / +0.084similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate367 5LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA356

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs LSU	45-24	W	+1.5	W	56.5	O
2	vs Southern Miss	66-13	W	-31.0	W	53.5	O
3	@ Boston College	31-29	W	-26.3	L	48	O
4	@ Clemson	31-24	W	-2.3	W	55	P
6	vs Virginia Tech	39-17	W	-24.0	L	53	O
7	vs Syracuse	41-3	W	-17.5	W	56.5	U
8	vs Duke	38-20	W	-14.0	W	49	O
9	@ Wake Forest	41-16	W	-20.0	W	51.5	O
10	@ Pittsburgh	24-7	W	-21.5	L	51	U
11	vs Miami	27-20	W	-14.5	L	50	U
12	vs North Alabama	58-13	W	-	-	-	-
13	@ Florida	24-15	W	-6.5	W	50	U
14	vs Louisville	16-6	W	-1.5	W	46.5	U
18	vs Georgia	3-63	L	+14.0	L	44.5	O

Betting Profile

ATS Record

8-5

61.5%

O/U Record

7-5-1

58.3%

Straight Up

13-1

92.9%

Home ATS5-3

Away ATS3-2

Favorite ATS7-4

Underdog ATS1-1

Last 5 ATS

LWWL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.088	80th	-0.061	83th
Red Zone	+0.017	54th	-0.113	70th
Third Down	+0.189	48th	+0.027	81th
No Garbage Time	+0.068	73th	-0.093	91th
First Half	+0.041	58th	+0.000	53th
Second Half	+0.146	96th	-0.123	90th
Early Downs	+0.079	90th	-0.035	48th
Passing Downs	+0.128	73th	-0.022	75th
Standard Downs	+0.066	80th	-0.087	80th
Goal to Go	+0.036	53th	-0.134	70th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%

Havoc/Game

17.9

Havoc Rate

26.3%

TO Margin

+0.6

Explosive/G

13.3

Yards/Game

401.6

Pts/Drive

2.57

3rd Down%

36.3%

3&Out%

22.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Florida State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	484	270
Points / Game	34.6	19.3
First Downs
Total	274	249
Rushing	96	113
Passing	151	105
Penalty	27	31
Rushing
Attempts	463	509
Yards	2,103	2,131
Yards / Carry	4.5	4.2
Yards / Game	150.2	152.2
Touchdowns	32	17
Passing
Attempts	433	416
Completions	260	201
Completion %	60.0%	48.3%
Yards	3,519	2,516
Yards / Attempt	8.1	6.0
Touchdowns	25	12
Interceptions	4	10
Passer Rating	145.52	103.83
Total Offense
Plays	896	925
Yards	5,622	4,647
Yards / Play	6.3	5.0
Yards / Game	401.6	331.9
Punt Returns
Returns	27	13
Yards	298	83
Average	11.0	6.4
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	16	27
Yards	407	610
Average	25.4	22.6
Touchdowns	1	1
Punting
Punts	67	85
Yards	3,043	3,809
Average	45.4	44.8
Interception Returns
Returns	10	4
Yards	53	41
Touchdowns	1	1
Fumbles
Fumbles	17	19
Lost	5	7
Penalties
Penalties	85	103
Yards	792	865
Yards / Game	56.6	61.8
Time of Possession
Per Game	29:24	30:36
Third Downs
Attempts	182	198
Conversions	66	57
Conversion %	36.3%	28.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	21	30
Conversions	10	13
Conversion %	47.6%	43.3%
Red Zone
Trips	55	45
Scores (TD + FG)	48	37
Score %	87.3%	82.2%
Touchdowns	33	24
TD %	60.0%	53.3%
Field Goals
Attempts	21	22
Made	19	16
Pct	90.5%	72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	59	30
Made	59	28
Pct	100.0%	93.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	1	2
Made	1	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →