Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference11-3#21 (+6.30)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
81· BPer play
76· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
87· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.105
Defensive EPA/play
-0.098
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
41.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.202
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.119
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#10
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 43 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense3782Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3733Florida State2023OA +0.078 / +0.123similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3674Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3575Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate355

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisiana Tech38-14W-20.0W66.5U
2@ Oklahoma11-28L+13.5L70.5U
3vs Prairie View A&M69-0W-42.0W63.5O
4@ TCU17-34L+6.5L63U
5vs Charlotte34-16W-23.5L53.5U
7@ East Carolina31-10W-19.5W56U
8@ Temple55-0W----
9vs Tulsa69-10W-21.0W58.5O
10@ Rice36-31W-17.0W68U
11vs North Texas45-21W----
12@ Memphis38-34W-8.0L66.5O
13vs Navy59-14W-18.0W45.5O
14@ Tulane26-14W+3.0W47U
18@ Boston College14-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
5-9
35.7%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-5
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off76thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off79thPass Def90thRush Def70thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10784th-0.07387th
Red Zone+0.17085th-0.05861th
Third Down+0.32579th+0.03081th
No Garbage Time+0.10784th-0.08387th
First Half+0.17191th-0.09787th
Second Half+0.03161th-0.05173th
Early Downs+0.02875th-0.10181th
Passing Downs+0.22588th-0.08090th
Standard Downs+0.05076th-0.06970th
Goal to Go+0.11268th-0.14473th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
23.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
454.3
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
43.1%
3&Out%
15.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points542249
Points / Game38.717.8
First Downs
Total334233
Rushing13592
Passing165120
Penalty3421
Rushing
Attempts555499
Yards2,4631,707
Yards / Carry4.43.4
Yards / Game175.9121.9
Touchdowns2914
Passing
Attempts465428
Completions274247
Completion %58.9%57.7%
Yards3,8972,551
Yards / Attempt8.46.0
Touchdowns3317
Interceptions812
Passer Rating149.30115.28
Total Offense
Plays1,020927
Yards6,3604,258
Yards / Play6.24.6
Yards / Game454.3304.1
Punt Returns
Returns2717
Yards265164
Average9.89.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2333
Yards452657
Average19.719.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4787
Yards1,9713,641
Average41.941.9
Interception Returns
Returns128
Yards17258
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles1513
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties6595
Yards577902
Yards / Game41.264.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0629:36
Third Downs
Attempts197203
Conversions8557
Conversion %43.1%28.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2838
Conversions1721
Conversion %60.7%55.3%
Red Zone
Trips5836
Scores (TD + FG)5428
Score %93.1%77.8%
Touchdowns4022
TD %69.0%61.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2715
Made209
Pct74.1%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6730
Made6628
Pct98.5%93.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →