Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsRun-Heavy
American Conference10-2#30 (+10.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
85· BPer play
58· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
83· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.094
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.099
Defensive EPA/play
-0.146
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
41.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.244
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.61

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#30
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
model 27 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
81th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2019OA +0.101 / +0.085similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3682Arkansas State2018OA +0.033 / +0.059similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3653Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3644Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3485App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate342

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ San José State42-22W----
1vs Stony Brook31-17W-2.0W66O
3vs Illinois47-23W-16.5W55O
4vs Temple43-7W-17.5W61.5U
5@ East Carolina61-31W-22.5W72.5O
7vs Cincinnati33-3W-24.0W63U
8@ Tulane34-28W-10.0L54O
9vs Houston24-28L-10.0L54U
10@ UConn37-20W-23.0L64U
12vs Tulsa27-20W-24.0L65U
13@ UCF42-49L+10.0W65O
17vs Texas Tech38-34W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4
60.0%
O/U Record
5-5
50.0%
Straight Up
8-2
80.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off77thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off89thPass Def49thRush Def95thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08686th-0.12680th
Red Zone+0.01352th+0.10929th
Third Down+0.24389th-0.02651th
No Garbage Time+0.08583th-0.15286th
First Half+0.07581th-0.21895th
Second Half+0.09786th-0.02552th
Early Downs+0.05178th-0.13986th
Passing Downs+0.14883th-0.01749th
Standard Downs+0.05477th-0.19795th
Goal to Go+0.09968th+0.4214th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.7%Rush 63.3%
Havoc/Game
17.8
Havoc Rate
23.5%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
513.0
Pts/Drive
2.61
3rd Down%
43.9%
3&Out%
22.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points459282
Points / Game38.323.5
First Downs
Total309236
Rushing16685
Passing120123
Penalty2328
Rushing
Attempts634457
Yards3,1691,523
Yards / Carry5.03.3
Yards / Game264.1126.9
Touchdowns3017
Passing
Attempts367435
Completions196230
Completion %53.4%52.9%
Yards2,9872,794
Yards / Attempt8.16.4
Touchdowns2517
Interceptions620
Passer Rating140.98110.53
Total Offense
Plays1,001892
Yards6,1564,317
Yards / Play6.14.8
Yards / Game513.0359.8
Punt Returns
Returns2422
Yards226158
Average9.47.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3047
Yards5521,136
Average18.424.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6486
Yards2,6533,423
Average41.539.8
Interception Returns
Returns206
Yards31020
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles119
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties11195
Yards1,032809
Yards / Game86.067.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2929:31
Third Downs
Attempts205195
Conversions9071
Conversion %43.9%36.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions127
Conversion %60.0%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips6131
Scores (TD + FG)4927
Score %80.3%87.1%
Touchdowns3220
TD %52.5%64.5%
Field Goals
Attempts259
Made218
Pct84.0%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5634
Made5232
Pct92.9%94.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →