Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#20 (+13.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
84· BRating
87· BPer play
71· BConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
70· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.135
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.110
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.121
Defensive EPA/play
-0.079
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.200
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.77

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#45
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
model 23 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
71th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
90th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3782Utah State2018OA +0.052 / +0.107similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3633Boise State2017OA +0.087 / +0.050similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3584Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3515Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate350

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Hawai'i40-6W-15.5W54.5U
2vs Weber State48-3W-31.5W56.5U
3vs Kansas State23-17W----
5@ Iowa State14-39L+4.0L48.5O
6vs Oklahoma State41-13W-35.5L51.5O
7vs BYU27-33L+2.5L47O
8@ Houston28-31L-1.0L47.5O
10@ Colorado52-17W-4.0W52.5O
11vs Kansas24-20W+3.5W57.5U
12@ Cincinnati30-24W+6.5W56.5U
13vs Baylor41-17W-1.5W48U
14@ Arizona State23-7W----
19@ SMU19-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off71thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off75thPass Def71thRush Def93thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06774th-0.12190th
Red Zone-0.08033th-0.07364th
Third Down+0.21475th-0.09779th
No Garbage Time+0.11887th-0.09178th
First Half+0.11582th+0.02236th
Second Half+0.01963th-0.26199th
Early Downs+0.00152th-0.13090th
Passing Downs+0.09479th-0.09071th
Standard Downs+0.05271th-0.13893th
Goal to Go-0.09336th+0.3029th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+1.4
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
407.6
Pts/Drive
2.77
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
15.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points410251
Points / Game31.519.3
First Downs
Total289214
Rushing11298
Passing14698
Penalty3118
Rushing
Attempts463473
Yards1,9811,862
Yards / Carry4.33.9
Yards / Game152.4143.2
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts446385
Completions281208
Completion %63.0%54.0%
Yards3,3182,149
Yards / Attempt7.45.6
Touchdowns299
Interceptions822
Passer Rating143.3797.20
Total Offense
Plays909858
Yards5,2994,011
Yards / Play5.84.7
Yards / Game407.6308.5
Punt Returns
Returns2010
Yards20288
Average10.18.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns115
Yards223108
Average20.321.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4254
Yards1,7412,455
Average41.545.5
Interception Returns
Returns228
Yards246145
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties7369
Yards679661
Yards / Game52.250.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5629:04
Third Downs
Attempts178185
Conversions7363
Conversion %41.0%34.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3233
Conversions2019
Conversion %62.5%57.6%
Red Zone
Trips5736
Scores (TD + FG)4430
Score %77.2%83.3%
Touchdowns3121
TD %54.4%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts3223
Made1916
Pct59.4%69.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4827
Made4727
Pct97.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →